Awesome Live Trading Again With Rob Today, So Now What?

Ok gang, welcome back.  Well a great day trading today!  A lot of lessons learned and for some new students who thought that they were a little bit smarter than me, not such a great day.  I had some people in the downdraft this morning that bet against me and they blew up accounts.  That’s the hard part about a new student family, sometimes they keep those old bad habits until they are willing to finally sit and listen to me.

So, congratulations to all of you that did well with the trades this morning.  There was a lot of you that followed my logic, followed what I did, great stuff in the room and then there were some people that were new, that learned a lesson the hard way that thought I was on the wrong side of the trade.

Let’s take a look at the Euro first, Euro had its best day out of this consolidation for some time.  Nice to be trying to peek its head above long term resistance we haven’t done that really and closed above it since October.  This is an encouraging sign, were really overcooked in the short term so I’d to see a little bit of a pull back.  Then from there I’d like to see it start to push back up again and then I’ll look for long side trades in the Euro.

Obviously a lot of things had movement today, stock index futures was certainly my poison!  Same thing that we had in the Euro, we had a long term down trend that a lot of the institutions focus on.  Same thing as the Euro, we need it to pull back now, show its support and start to take back off that will be getting me back into the game of gold.

As we go ahead and take a look at crude oil, not a great place to be really.  Unfortunately what crude oil did after the inventory report this morning, it spiked down sharply, got a lot of retail traders trapped in it, and then it just took off to the upside.  That’s why I have that rule in place gang, that we don’t we don’t want to take trades in the fifteen minutes after the crude oil report.

Unfortunately, there’s a lot of gurus out there teaching crude oil trading.  Many of them are actually on simulators themselves, but they’re giving you guy’s advice on you should be trading, so you are the only ones taking the real risk.  There’s a reason for that gang.  Unlike me, where I trade live right in front of people, just like I did this morning, made real live money in front of people in my live account.  There’s a lot of people trading on simulators, not showing their domes at all.  You got to have it real or don’t be a part of it.

So when you have people telling you “Oh yeah, go ahead and short this right now, it’s spiking down”, and you get that bottom tick and turns against you, its blood in the streets.  Right now, this spike put us right back in the falling channel here.  It’s great to have what we call a “hockey stick buy” on this, but that’s a one a day event and that put us in a falling resistance, so I’m going to need to see some more out of this before I get too excited.

The stock index futures in other markets are just a little too much more friendly right now than a post one day event here.  As we go ahead and look at the bonds, this should come as no surprise to you, I’ve been telling you about my inventory retracement bar now, going back to August of last year.  We have this big fat resistance up above and so we barely poked our head above the inventory retracement bar there yesterday.

Not to mention we have an M pattern sell as well.  However, we are due for a pullback.  I was warning my big bond traders this morning to not be aggressive because it looked like it was going to take off to the moon.  That could be a head fake though.  That is exactly what it was.  I am not too excited about the bonds just yet.  I want to see if it can hold the speed line support first.

Let’s turn to the Stock Index Futures.  As you can imagine, that is where all the fun was this morning.  We broke down below yesterday’s lows.  That was already below the speed lines.  That led to a huge move to the downside.  We dropped around 320 ticks and that equates to around 3000 dollars a contract off the U.S. open.  On the Russell there was huge moves to the downside followed by a total flush out.  It actually locked in a three musketeer’s trade.  I have been talking about that trade in my previous videos.  It happened all over again this morning by identifying the absolute bottom.  That market took off to the upside.  If you did not follow the way I did it in the Live Trading Room you probably were on the wrong side of the trade.  We came well back off the lows overall.  Where did we come off the lows?  What happened was we were in the big fat accumulation bar.  That’s an inventory retracement bar of the accumulation persuasion.  In a downtrend they are accumulation, and in an uptrend they are distribution.  We came back in there and dipped our nose back into it.  That was also S2 at the time.  That means Normal maximum statistical daily range.  All of the math was in our favor there.  This market reversed on a dime and ended up taking off without seeing the bottoms again.

As we can imagine, there are fresh inventory retracement bars after past ones.  There are multiple buy signals coming into this thing.  The cleanest trade will be breaking back down below the inventory retracement bars that were set today, followed by retesting the areas that we have hit multiple times in the last few weeks.  If we keep testing it, known as my skipping rock theory, which could bode poorly for 401ks.  Those could become 201ks or 101ks.  We will want to stay above the 180000 level, especially if you care about that.  I am a professional trader and am looking forward to that.  If we do hold after the double inventory retracement bar accumulation signals, I will want to get through today’s highs for cautions longs.  I won’t be as aggressive to the long side initially unless the hourly chart is pushing up.  We need to remember the dailies are down.  Keep in mind that means Mom and Dad are fighting again.  I will want to see some great intraday alignment for the long trades.  Make sure to keep stops tighter too.  Again, I wouldn’t mind breaking down below these inventory retracement bars.  More great stuff, and great trading!  That equity curve keeps rising here.  I am looking forward to having you guys in the Live Trading Room tomorrow morning.


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