The Big 18 Minute Update Video Rob Promised You The Other Day

Well welcome back everyone! It is great to see you…we told you this weekend’s video would be a little longer so sit down with a cup of coffee or a beverage and lets go ahead and take a look at a handful of markets as we get into next week and I will point out some other things that you need to know.

First things first, let’s take a look at the VIX. What I would actually like to see with the VIX going into the beginning of next week’s trading here. I would actually like to push up above this 24 level and actually spike up. What does that mean to us in the market? I would like to see the market go down. We will talk more about the US Stock Indies in just a little bit. We had rising support underneath of us, we held that initially and bounced off there and as we are coming deeper into that we are still bouncing off of that area and holding well. The path of least resistance here from my perspective would be to the upside. I would love to go ahead and see a lot more volatility come into this market here which would drive market prices down. That’s been the way to go, that’s been most enjoyable for me as a trader.

Right now we also have this big fat accumulation bar going on here from last Thursday. We held that as you can see on Friday. In fact when it got right towards where it was supposed to go the top end of that distribution bar held that area and stayed above. You can image we break back above the highs here 24 that could go very well for higher volatility and sell offs in the market. We will follow up with that more in a little bit.

As we take a look here at the Euro. This one we would like to go ahead and actually hold off a little bit in doing anything little new here. We cannot get a good 2 solid breaks above all of the resistance levels. We get these 1 bar breaks above the resistance and they roll right back down. As we look at its counterpart the Dollar. It is equal and opposite if you will. You can see it is sitting there holding on to dear life on some long term supports but then has a bunch of resistance right above us. I would not be making any big dollar Euro bets just yet. It is not quite ready. I was hoping to be a little more ready going into the new week-post FOMC but it’s not. Thursday it popped up and Friday it came right back down holding into the gobbly-guk area for bunch of my support resistant levels. I just showed you the dollar side of it as well. I am talking more from a Swing trade position now. Obviously, I am very active on an intraday basis I was shorting the heck out of the DAX and shorting the Russell. I told you this is a day traders market to say the least. There is certain things that we need to look for in order to focus more on the Swing trades and since we didn’t get those on the Dollar Euro here we have to hold off a little more.

As we take a look at Gold. It went ahead and rallied into Wednesday, Thursday and Friday post FOMC.  It has not gone ahead and made any so of sustainable continuation type of pattern here. What I mean by that is. We have this 1 bar above the channel and we are pretty overdone on the stochastics and if you look in recent history here when we get high on those stochastics were typically pausing or outright coming down. What we have to do with Gold here is we need for it to settle back down toward the channel and then start to rally back down. It is going to be the tougher road just because of the fact that we have a lot of falling resistance here. I would not walk into the day Monday morning being a buyer of Gold personally on a Swing trade basis because we have a lot of resistance and it’s already proven to hold here previously. Nothing to do with this quite yet.

As we go ahead and take a look Crude Oil which I love if it can just get moving a little bit better. I kept watching it for trading ideas on Thursday and Friday but truth be told the DAX and Stock Index Futures they ruled the roost. If anybody was watching the DAX Friday morning you know exactly what I am talking about. As we take a look at this we are still stuck in the multi-week channel on Crude Oil and we need to either break out or break down. I would prefer we break down. The path of least resistance is actually to the downside on Crude Oil rather than if we go up. There is some money to be made on a short-term basis here. Like one of those 2 day Swing trades perhaps but not on an intraday trading. On a bigger picture we have major resistance that hasn’t been tested now for month’s right up above. You can see it’s a ton of resistance small to toy with type of resistance this is really important long-term resistance. All three of it ways of it coming down on top of us. You can see before intermediate term resistance stopped us cold in our traps so you can imagine what this will do to us. It is going to be a tough road to bear. Swing trades to the upside, if we can break above some of these recent distribution areas as soon as it gets up here tight trailing stops here underneath that area because we have to expect that it is going to pull back down.

The favorite trade would be to the downside. We still got the same support levels that I have been identifying for you now for the last week and half. I would like to break down below those which I am sure we can get some support down below here. This is a much easier path of least resistance type factor. I would love to see us get down towards that $38/$35 area below Crude Oil. That is going to be a favorite trade from a Swing trade position. On an intraday basis I was watching that on Friday as I was saying but in the end the more favorite trade ended up being the DAX and the Russell. We will continue to watch that and see if it breaks down and out and then we will start trading that one.

As we take a look at Yen here. My position is still the same since the last update I gave you guys. We are kind of consolidating here and we cannot get a break above this long-term resistance levels. Now I just showed you that Crude Oil had three long-term resistance levels. In one of the previous long-term resistance levels on Japanese Yen kind of killed it off for a while. And now the secondary ones. On Crude Oil all three of them are in close proximity. With the Yen at a minimum the first thing we need to do is get above the 8450 area for me to take a look at this as a long-term perspective. There is nothing for me to do on the short-side here right now. We have numerous support levels underneath us both sideways and rising. I prefer to see the break out to the upside. Something we have not seen a lot of in the Japanese Yen. It has been a long time since we have seen decent rallies in the Yen. If we could actually make that happen get above some of the previous distribution bars here we could really set this off for some new cycling. Giving the fact that we are making lower lows in price but higher lows in indicators that would also be another reason I would like to see bullishness coming out of the Japanese Yen here.

As we take a look at the British pound I am excited if we can reverse what happened Friday. We got back up in this resistance level. If we go back in time even here we had a nice run and held it at support and it became resistant, resistant and resistant again. I was looking for the 2-bar break we couldn’t get the 2 bard break and it rolled back down in here and here it is resistance again. As you can imagine if we can get a 2-bar break going above this key resistance of mine that would be outstanding on a Swing trade basis as well as an intraday basis as well.  Every time we get up into this area, I start watching this a lot closer. Even on an intraday basis as well for all my currency traders and myself in the room.

As we take a look at the bonds, we have bounced off of some key support areas. I told you if we can break down below those support areas we can see nicer lows. But we couldn’t break them. We’re holding them and we’re back in that channel of support resistance where we’ve been now for several weeks. You’ll recall we were previously looking for buy side opportunities up here above the 15726 area. We still have some room to grow to make that happen. Right now, walking in to Monday, we’re a little overcooked. Again, same thing you’ll notice when we get overcooked or get Hoffman fades or stochastic spikes or hockey stick sells – they’ve been selling. So high stochastics here, usually not the places – especially when the bond is technically driven, which usually it is outside of things like the FOMC announcements and that. Going into this with still being in the resistance here and being overbought, I’m not willing to go below the original buy price I gave you weeks ago. I’m not willing to do much with it, especially on a swing trade basis just yet.

The NASDAQ was a fun instrument to trade on Friday. It was crazy. If you guys were watching the DAQs, it was incredible. That’s all I can say. Needless to say, this one went ahead and had a good move to the down side. The path of least resistance, I’ve been telling you guys, is to the down side. We had this rising support here to the speed lines and falling resistance that has to resolve itself. Right now, going into Friday, we had a nice move down. The path of least resistance is down. The only thing that was really holding us up was the speed lines. That was not just for the DAQs, this was also for the Stock Index Futures as well.

As we look at the Stock Index Futures, we’ve got a lot of opportunity. The Russell is right at the speed line still but the S&P is below, the DOW is below, the NASDAQ is right at. As you can imagine, if we can get the VIX getting up and staying up above the 24 level I told you about earlier, we can really hit this hard selling. That would be the favored trade. I would be very aggressive on the short side here if we go ahead and open up and then start to slide down. If we do like we did on Friday where we were already down quite a bit walking into the day, then I’m going to watch for reversals just like Friday. That’s a retail trader mistake, walking into the morning and getting sucked into the euphoria that the markets are already down quite a bit so you better get short. Of course the market V-spiked up to the upside and held there. Anybody who shorted near those lows unfortunately got taken to the cleaners on Friday. So the short side was definitely the way to go but earlier in the session.

As we look at this, what we’d like to see then is to start getting below Friday’s lows on the NASDAQ and the Russell and look for continuations to the down side on the S&P and the DOW and getting that VIX above 24 and start rising toward 25 and beyond. The more that VIX can rise, the more this market can go ahead and come off. You can bet we’re going to be watching that very closely. If the market holds here and starts to reverse back up, it’s not that I won’t look for longs, but I certainly won’t be as aggressive, and I will look for more things on an intraday basis to justify my positions. I’ll be looking at the two-minute, five-minute, 15-minute, hourly charts and looking for some guidance there. Making sure that there are some things in agreement prior to taking long side trades there. You can imagine the favored trades would definitely be to the short side to get more aggressive.

Those are a handful of things there. This video is already 13 minutes long so I’ll discuss Apple, Netflix, Goldman Sachs, Testman and Go Pro in the Premium Swing Trading video.

I do want to point out something to you guys – a big update. As you know, I’m going to be a featured speaker at the Las Vegas Traders Expo. This year we have an even bigger booth to accommodate a lot more of you. Last year it was just too crowded. We have twice the size booth so we can have more of you there. That’s not the big announcement. The big announcement is a lot of requests came into the Moneyshow that people were coming out to see Rob Hoffman and when my events are so we’re adding extra presentations. Some of the other exhibitors have asked me to do special presentations for them. I’m going to be doing some really special events out there including a mentorship level setup. I never do mentorship level setups for free for the public, but on behalf of one of the exhibitors out there, I’m going to be doing that.

All day Thursday I have back-to-back events. I have the live trading challenge for you guys to come watch me trade live. I’m looking forward to doing that against the trader we’ve got trading there. It’s going to be fun. I have a lot of respect for this trader so I think we’re going to have a lot of fun together. Then we have numerous training classes all day long. I now have this added one. They’re not even on the agenda. There are only a handful events that I’m speaking at listed on there. The Moneyshow hasn’t been able to keep up with all of the things that people have been adding.  What I want you to do is register with the little link that you had in the special update section tonight to keep up with all of the different things that have been added to my roster. This is going to be really big. You can plan on all day Thursday being with me. I have talks all day including mentorship level strategies. One of those is even being given away for free so that’s a huge opportunity to be so more successful in your trading going forward, in my opinion. You know what I’ve accomplished over the years in trading competitions around the world but here’s a great opportunity to learn a lot of these things live. This is going to be a big show. Then Friday, we’re going to try to keep me at the booth where you guys can come bring your individual problems, individual questions, and stuff about my work if you’ve been watching my nightly videos here, whatever it is, bring all your questions, all your needs. I have some great long-term students there as well for you to meet and learn from as well. On Friday, you’ll have more of that direct small-group access to me. You’re going to want to be there. It’s a great opportunity. If you’re not finding the value you need normally, you’re going to find the value you need to make it worth coming to the Las Vegas Traders Expo for sure by going ahead and being with me on Thursday and Friday. It’s really exciting, and I’m looking forward to being there. There are going to be other great presenters there as well, not just myself. There’s going to be a lot to learn. Like I said, I normally don’t talk about these things nearly as much, but since there’s five or six classes I’m doing, if you sit in my classes all day and become a much better trader by the time you walk out Thursday evening. You can practice some of the things Thursday night while you’re in Vegas. Hopefully you’ll spend some time on your computers checking out what I taught you on Thursday, and then Friday we can trade from my booth live together. We can learn these things live and see them in action in my booth. Register on the link that’s going to pop up on the video here. It’s absolutely free to register for that or click the link in the special update section.

I look forward to seeing you in the live trading room tomorrow morning. We have so much great trading ahead of us here and we have some great events coming up here with the Moneyshow next month. You guys have a wonderful night. Take care, everyone!

 

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