With Bombs Flying, Where Do We Go From Here As Day And Swing Traders

Welcome back! Let’s cover a handful of things. First of all, Bonds. Bonds did push above that all important level – 152.06. That did that on the heels of President Trump retaliating against the awful attacks in Syria. That was a news-related event. Unless you’re quick on the draw and watched the market right when that was happening, you really didn’t get the chance to benefit from that. As we’re closing up on Friday, this locks us in for a big, fat distribution bar. You already had a big, solid block of resistance up here and as we got up into the 153s, we had another major level. All this did was add another level of concrete to the ceiling wall, putting us under a lot of pressure. We can’t really get into the swing trades during this turbulent time. There’s too much resistance overhead. Any signs of relief the market is happy to recover off its lows as we’re showing in a minute. We’re going to be watching this, but right now going into Monday, this area between 152.06 and 151 area is pretty much a no-go area unless we’re looking for a very short-term scalp trade opportunity. It’s certainly not the swing trade opportunity we’re looking for.

On the Stock Indices, the market was very quick to find areas of support and turn them into accumulation. We’ve had a lot of accumulation bars popping up recently causing us to hold. You’ll see on the S&P, we held virtually to the tick. Same thing on the Russell. We held to the tick then rebounded off. On the Dow, we held my accumulation bar and bounced off. On the NASDAQ, we didn’t have to get down that far. We bounced off of short-term rising channel support. As we go into this, what we’re faced with walking into next week, we have a lot of selling on top of us. We have a lot of distribution bars and a lot of resistance. We also have a lot of accumulation bars. We’re caught between accumulation and distribution. This goes back to what I said a few weeks ago: expect a lot of volatility and we’re going to have to trade around that. In the live trading room, we made money on those trades but we’re trading around this volatility. From a swing trade perspective, especially on the index side of things, there’s not a lot to do with it. Right now, with North Korea, China, Russia and Syria, pick your poison. You’re going to see some nasty whip-saws. In my swing trading section, I gave some ideas on the options side. If you have some underlying equities position, I gave some things to think about. I was just putting out some general thoughts so make sure you watch those if you get access to the swing trading videos. Individual markets will have to be watched. On the equity markets, such as the ETFs, it really doesn’t make a lot of sense from my perspective. We’re going to have to start breaking out/breaking down.

Let’s take a look at AAPL. I know AAPL has a lot of historical value to us. Two things to keep in mind. One, I really don’t want to have anything to do with AAPL long if we’re below the speed lines. If I was going to take speed line continuation trades and I have the indicators firing off, I’m going to be willing to stay long as long as we stay above. If we start dipping down the speed lines, I’m going to be out. I’m going to be looking for fresh re-entry opportunities like my momentum shift break outs for instance or momentum shift with trends. I would rather stay on the north side of the speed lines right now. Any signs of weakness coming through at all and I don’t want to be a part of it. We have a very powerful negative divergence on both the fast and core trigger. If you take a look, we have a big fat distribution bar there and we’re under the speed lines. I want to start seeing fresh market energy pop into this thing. Make higher highs in price and higher highs in indication. Keep that in mind. Watch out because we’re a little top heavy.

Basically, what I see here is a lot of great trading opportunities just like today. People don’t know what to do on days like today. We’re going to hit this real hard going into Monday morning. Next week  I expect to be a big week of trading especially since we have that lower talk trade environment. It has allowed us to get more trades in.

Have a wonderful weekend. We’ll see you Monday in the Live Trading Room!

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