Extended Stocks, Futures And Real-World Market Analysis With Rob

Welcome back everyone!  This is going to be one of those wild and politically charged videos this evening.  Depending on your politics, you will either like or dislike what you hear.  The reality is you are all focused on your personal wealth.  Do keep that in mind when I lay everything out this evening.

Someone this morning asked, “Is this a news driven market”.  The answer is this is definitely a news driven market.  First off the market was going up and up.  However, the S&P started to stall out.  A couple other markets started pulling back as well.  It just remained flat after that.  We took a hit where the health care bill was not passed and jury was convened to look into Russian Matters.

Anytime that there is a potential chance that the President Trump agenda could be stalled out, the market stalls out.  That has not affected the DOW proper, but it has affected most U.S. Markets.  It has either stalled them or they pulled back.

What has happened the past several days?  There has been a lot of news come out about how strong the economy actually is right now.  There are even political pieces coming out.  Let’s take a look at some of them.  If it is perceived that the Republicans, who are often considered business friendly, are allowed to remain in power through the 2018 midterm election this market could be considered more bullish.  If there is a chance that the Democrats take a bunch of seats that would be considered more bearish.  Forget the politics of it gang.  I am focusing on how that affects the markets.

Here is an article on CNN.  CNN writes a lot of negative stuff about President Trump.  The reality is that we have a strong economy.  Even though they are attacking the president’s low ratings, they are citing that the economy is going well.  They talk about high consumer confidence and booming stock market.  This is all of a sudden making people aware.  We also have had Mazda and Toyota opening plants.  Foxconn is going to be opening a plant in Wisconsin.  There are a lot of positive things taking place from an economic standpoint.  Even though this is a hit piece, you have a lot of good economic information.

There are other pieces that CNN picked up that show all early signs show 2018 is going to be very good for the Democrats.  This is the usual positive spin that you expect to see from CNN.  There is a very detailed analysis that explains that even if the Democrats win a lot of seats it might not affect the majority and stuff.  The point that I am making is that even when they are attacking President Trump there are even things going well for the economy.  This is exactly how people are perceiving it.

You can also see that the U.S. intelligence has concluded that North Korea is currently making nuclear warheads that have the ability to be carried on rockets.  As you can image, that really blunted the run going on this morning that we were trading in the trading room.  I was initially focusing on the long side trades on the NASDAQ because it was humming so well. We are just blunted as the leaks of these information are starting to appear.  That just doesn’t bode well for any of us on both political sides.

Despite the historically low volatility, I just cannot be looking for short side trades on a swing trade basis.  I would consider short on an intraday basis.  I didn’t do that this morning because the freight train was to the upside.  I prefer to do that in general when we are above the speed lines.  We were above the speed lines on all of the U.S. Stock Indices this morning.

From a swing trade basis, until we start getting below 22000 on the DOW this means nothing.  Take a look at the last two weeks!  We could barely get down below the speed lines, followed by it popping up.  We just are not getting anything going on the more meaningful bellwether, like the S&P.  I had a gentleman this morning who was really deep in some option trades to the short side.  He was not a happy camper this morning.  Until we can really be thinking about the short side, I will need to see some closing below the speed lines.  We just are not getting that.  The focus continues to be to the long side, in my personal opinion.  Let’s see what happens with the North Korea situation because that could change everything.

When I read something, I don’t care that it says low approval ratings, I am looking for the real information behind the scenes.  That is what makes me a better day or swing trader.  I am trying to share that knowledge with you this evening.  Even when the news appears to be a hit piece on the President, there is a lot of logical reasons why this market is going up.  You can see that when you start cutting through the politics.

BABA is going to be a very similar situation to some of the stocks I looked at yesterday.  If you remember I wanted to get above the 160 level on Apple.  I want to see the same this with BABA.  I want to get above the 160 level, show us it is support, and then look for the take off to the upside.  160 has to be made support before I will take any long side trade.

People didn’t pay attention to my warnings with CMG.  We were very positive before.  We were bullish and had a lot of buy opportunities.  Right after that we went back to sells.  We got below the 400 level, pulled down through the level, pulled back up to the 400 level, then rolled back down and broke below my momentum shift break out.  That gave us a double sell signal there.  That is exactly where it whooshed to the downside.  Unfortunately, after dropping over 50 dollars it got people’s attention to the short side.  My thought is that I would look for a retracement back up into fallen resistance.  I would want to see if another sell opportunity comes from that.  Catching the falling knife doesn’t appeal to me.  I am just not going to do that!  I would like to see more of a retracement for a with trend trade.  The reason why I lay out these strategies is because they are very powerful.  Once everyone catches on, and notices they are on the wrong side of the trade, which is when I personally back off.  I would like to see it rally into fallen resistance for another short opportunity.

I hope everyone gets through the politics and cuts through to what is important.  What is happening with the economy is what is important.  Are businesses coming back to the United States, or leaving, these things are what is important.  This is important from a long term investment, Swing Trading perspective, and Day Trading perspective.

I hope everyone has a good night!  I can’t wait to see everyone tomorrow in the Live Trading Room or in tomorrow night’s videos.

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