Rob Is Back, So Enjoy His Latest Market Updates

Welcome back, everyone. It’s great to see you here on my public video side. Obviously, I’ve been keeping up with my premium private client videos. Which has been incredible. We are actually going to talk about that to get you guys up to speed as well and share some of the things that I have been talking to my private clients about. Even some of the stuff we shared in the public videos, we will talk about what has been happening there.  Let’s start off with that to get you up to speed after coming back from the two week tour of Dubai, India, and Hong Kong to speak to some fantastic clients in all those fantastic places. It was an incredible time and welcome to our new institutional student family members and retail traders alike.

First thing’s first is the Euro. Before I left, I told you that we were hunting the Euro for a two bar break. I had been talking about this and said that we needed a two bar break just like we wanted for Crude Oil. That could lead to great moves to the upside. You can see that we have gotten a two bar break on the Euro. So, the Euro is doing really well. It is now hitting some down trending resistance. It is now doing the exact same thing that Crude was doing before. Crude Oil had the two bar break, then it got hit by some longer term weekly resistance, had to sit there for a little bit, and pushed back up. You recall that Crude Oil finally had my two bar break, it pulled back, verifying that it was now support, it took off, held its weekly resistance, and then took off again. Bottom line is, after my two bar break, this thing shot up about $8,000 a contract. We talked about it here with you first. Flipping back to the Euro, you can see was doing something similar, getting caught even in some daily resistance now. At that point, we do have the two bar break. Our expectation for now is that this 110 level on the Euro should hold the support. If that does, we could see some much higher prices in the Euro and lower prices in the Dollar in the short term. We will be keeping a close eye on possible long side trading opportunities on the Euro especially if we validate that the channel is now support.

I have told you for a while that I have not been a fan of Gold – iot has been stuck in the channel. Until we get solid break outs and break outs I will not be a fan. It is still pretty sloppy here. It continues to be the case. Everything I told you about Gold before, continues to be the case. The ones that we were actively looking for breakouts on, Gold, Crude Oil, and The Euro we have not seen it in Gold.

We talked a lot about the 30 year Bond as well, particularly in my Premium Videos because I have a lot of Bond clients. We also talked about it here as well for a couple of reasons: We had higher highs in price but we did not have higher highs in my indicators. Then, we went magenta-blue-=magenta-blue-magenta. This is a very bad side for any instrument that we are seeing. Usually, it bodes very poorly. We were looking for lower bond prices and it hit some breakdown points, which has led to some decent short opportunities.

That brings us to the next point. Some of the other private client updates I did while I was in Dubai, India, and Hong Kong was right here. You will see one of these was “Another Extended Update From Rob And Your Questions Answered”. I did this on Tuesday for Wednesday’s market. I made the video at 5AM Hong Kong time but I felt compelled to get this video out. In the video, I shared this really important work. The first thing to note in this video is when I was talking about the VIX. I was pointing out how the VIX was holding above this band that was very important to me. What I was saying was that we could actually ricochet off of this band. I preceded it like this and show how I wanted to tie it to the Stock Market. I was saying that this band on the VIX was holding. I was basically looking for the band from the 10-12 or 18-20 level to breakout above or breakdown below. I notice at 12 we were holding this. I was thinking that in the next step, we could ricochet off which would mean that the market could roll over. I was also seeing sell signals at the time that could take place of this. This was on a Tuesday. I pointed out that we were holding this band as support. The next thing I pointed out was how it ties into the Stock Index Futures. I’ve often told you guys that the Russell is usually the leader. A lot of people want to trade the DOW, the S&P, or the NASDAQ – there is nothing wrong with that. But you have to watch the Russell because it is often the leader. As I pointed out that on Tuesday, we were going magenta-blue-magenta on the Russell which is a sell signal. I then proceeded to say that we had a negative divergence taking place at the time where there were higher highs in price but not in the indicators. Same thing with the DOW, there were higher highs in price but not on the indicators. But we had this stark contract, particularly on the Russell. This combine with the VIX could lead to a big push over and a big sell off because the Russell is already depressed and the other ones have much further to fall. Particularly like the NASDAQ. Sure enough, that lead to a 500 tick drop I just two days – $5000 of contracts in over 2 days afterwards. So, a lot of really great stuff that we kept our premium clients up to date with. I’m pretty excited about what we were able to accomplish even from afar.

All in all, on the updates that I gave you before I left, looking for the two bar break on the Euro followed through, Crude Oil followed through with the two bar break – that is classic Rob Hoffman 101 info.

Where we are at now going into this week is we are caught between a rock and a hard place. We had this big move back down. So, what happened on most of these Stock Index Futures, with the exception of the S&P it poked its head back above the speed lines but it is still in a major area of congestion in the backdrop. The Russell has my speed lines coming down on top of it with long term support underneath. The DOW is stuck in the middle of the channel and the speed lines coming down. The NASDAQ has the speed lines coming down with the channel underneath. We can see that the Russell is grossly depressed. We will need to start breaking down below this 1208 level on the Russell or we will have to get back above the speed lines above 1240. Anything else in the middle right now will be a ricochet market where it looks like it is going to go up back whips back down and vice-versa. But we can see that we had the nice move with my concern off the magenta-blue-magenta. That is the same magenta-blue-magenta as you recall that I pointed out in the Bond and then we saw the rollover. That is something that I have noted to you over the years now which we caught major market tops and bottoms. Right now, we did have a huge move in a very short amount of time, over 2 days. Friday was more of a consolidation over all. Now, we have to go over the beginning of this week to see if we can get back above the speed lines on all four Stock Index Futures. If not, we will have to get below some lows –below the speed lines, below the 20 period moving averages, and look for some short side trades, especially if the Russell can get below the 1207, 1208 area.

That will be one of the key things that we are watching in addition to ongoing trades in Crude Oil since we had the two bar break, the Euro to look to see if that can shore up support. Also, looking at Bonds for continuation sells if that structure can hold. That is what we are looking at. I wanted to get you guys caught up because even though I was away, I was still taking care of our private clients. For everybody else, I wanted to get you guys up and running and see a little bit about what you had been missing in out absence. You have a fantastic night. I look forward to seeing you in the Live Trading Room Monday morning, otherwise I will see you in Monday night’s videos. Take care.

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