Rob’s back and here are his thoughts tonight

Okay, welcome back everybody! Well, first of all, sorry my voice is gonna be a little bit rough still and I make off on you at some point but thank you so much for all of you that went ahead didn’t know we’re so supportive in my absence thank you to Ziad who went ahead and covered for me to make sure you guys got some videos and some market analysis. thanks for again for the “Get well” wishes and that, so, as we go ahead we take a look here this evening a couple things that we want to look at from overall market perspective – a couple things I’m focusing on very clearly right now. Number one, I’m not really focusing on shorts yet. As long as we stay above these speed lines, okay? If we fall back below these speed lines, so, take a look where these little magenta numbers are on each of these charts that you see 3132 on the S 1628 on the Russell, so on so forth here. 27915 area 27915 area, so, just take a look at each of these different areas the 8359 area on the NASDAQ and so on so forth with the DAX. So, above those areas I’m just not even thinking about shorts not even on an intraday basis. I’m just not really thinking about them. Below those areas I’ll look at intraday shorts if the setups are there, however, let me show you something else it’s really kind of ruling the roost in just a moment, in fact, but, before we get into that let’s go and just remind you that in general so we still have a lot of bullishness in the backdrop. The big problem here is the negative divergences, so we have negative derivatives we’re making higher highs in prices on several of these historically in the recent past and so and then that led to these pullbacks. Well, now we’re start to come back up but we’re not quite coming back up with the same enthusiasm like look how high this price was over here and how high it got and yet it’s barely going ahead and reach its aim coming close to the you know the most recent crust which was a negative divergence that led to this downfall. So, I’m a little bit concerned up there I’d like to see more vigor come in with these instruments and today, so far, with the close is coming upon us now isn’t doing a lot that with this magenta bar to reinvigorate me. We have two of these that will close with magenta bars and two of them that are27915 area barely blue bars. So, no real conviction here and now as we speak about conviction you know what I’m looking at is far as then intraday trades.

This is an hourly chart of the last two days and basically all I see here is either sideways and chops by the blue bars or that I want to look at short term long side trades. So, this tells me here with blue and green on the board I either want to be out of trades or I want to focus on short term long side trades and that kind of ties in with what I was saying just with the bigger picture here as long as we’re about the speed lines I really only want to focus on long side trades I’m not gonna get super excited and super aggressive on the long side until we start breaking above some of these momentum shift bars on some of these prices. We’ll see how this all looks as we go through the next couple of days because we’re gonna have contract rollovers on the Futures and let’s talk about that for a moment because you know this is something that is really misunderstood by so many people and for those of you that that are in the Futures markets, remember for stock indices we start that rollover process now here into the next two days. The expiration is a week later but what happens is a lot of our brokers push us into the new contracts, so, when a lot of people will open up their screens tomorrow morning they’re gonna see it’s going to be defaulting like let’s say the S&P; futures to March of 2020 when a reality the volume is likely to still be, in fact, you can see here now on Wednesday evening and some brokers started pushing today. We have 8200 contracts on this last 5-minute bar here in the December contract and yet only 539 contracts on the same 5-minute bar in them in the March 2020 contract. Clearly many times more volume here in the December contract and as of tomorrow morning you’re likely to see that.

The best way to go ahead and handle Futures contract rollover on any instrument you trade is take the current month and then the new month that’s coming in wait till a 5-minute bar on the current contract is less volume than the upcoming contract – put another way that the new contract that we’re rolling into has more volume on that 5-minute bar than the current 5-minute bar. Certainly brokers want you to go-ahead and rollover early because they don’t want you to wind up in something you don’t belong in but, the problem is if you roll over too early like today or even tomorrow morning first thing you actually run the risk of more slippage and an inefficient fills when you have less volume on those other months. I mean, clearly 539 contracts versus 8216 you be the judge where are you more likely to get more liquidity. So, that’s just a tip for all of you that are either new Futures traders or need a solid reminder on the best way to roll over wait to look the next month at March 2020 in this case for stock indices volume is greater than on a 5-minute bar than that of the December 2019 contract there, okay? In the meantime my focus going into from a daily perspective going into Thursday and Friday is going to be can we break out of this very ugly sideways and technically damaged Channel and start pushing to the upside get more green on the board look for long side trades, however, if we get back down below the speed lines then we’re gonna go ahead and you know that I’ve mentioned to you on the daily charts then we’ll start looking at some short term short opportunities but with the strength of the overall market getting too aggressive on the short side and too fast people wanting to go and sell this market has proven to be a fool’s errand in many cases with the exception of very specific selective stocks but people are getting too aggressive on the short time short side are finding that still very painful because that’s effectively counter trend trading at this point. So, don’t be a counter trend trader travel all over the world with retail and professional institutional clients I’ve yet to find a full-time counter trend trader that’s and that’s all that they do that’s truly continuously successful for the long term – they have isolated runs and then they blow themselves out. So, be careful, okay? Trading against trend = bad news. So, with that being said those are a couple of things that I’m focusing on with the major markets and as my voice recovers and we get back into it here we’ll take a look at some of the breakout markets for you as well. So, you guys have a wonderful rest of your night, look forward to upcoming videos take care, everyone. Buh-bye

Leave a comment!
Read previous post:
Market Ideas Into US CPI & Powell Update

Well, hello, gang! I hope everyone's doing well, Z here from Become A Better Trader. A little market update for...