Rob’s trading strategies given the latest Iranian conflict

Well, welcome back and happy new year everyone! You know, the last time where we left off with you was – I told you we’re basically going flat going home for the holiday and that was the right thing to do since that point which is reflected by the horizontal line here on each of these charts the market went ahead and had some pullbacks had some rallies and in the end is relatively where it was at or in like the case, the Russel, is still down. And the DAX is still down. So, as we as we look here overall neutral so that’s why risk-off over the holiday as I mentioned there was a few isolated cases, some great opportunities, and then there’s a lot of risk system people saw some you know stock take some big tumbles with some bad news that came out. So, where we’re at now going into the new year that’s what everybody’s been asking about after the Iranian situation today. We’ve just absolutely been flooded with calls about this today “what is Rob’s thoughts, what is Rob’s thoughts?” so let’s go ahead and talk about it. So, basically, to make a long story short, the market is still in an uptrend in the backdrop, okay? But, we also have a technically tired market here we’ve got negative divergences, right? So, what’s happening with these negative divergence is that’s causing these pullbacks now so far the market has done a pretty good job with the exception of the rustle of holding up pretty strong here it’s barely pulling back and then 50% off the lows – here it goes and it pulls back you know it takes back off again. Now, today the Dow kind of ran out of a little gas towards the end of the day here. This is shot Friday evening for you guys to see Sunday morning and then the Nasdaq has been the strongest one wound up just below the 45-50 percent off the low. So, where we’re at with all of this is – the markets a little bit tired and it’s certainly weary in light of the news that’s come out about Iran. Now, with that being said, the Iranian situation is going to go ahead and be something you cannot control. You are just gonna have to understand that whether you’re trying to play like a crude oil play and go bullish on crude oil or Halliburton or something like that’s gonna have just as much risk. For instance, if you guys remember a few months ago when Saudi Arabia went ahead and was attacked. In fact, let’s just go ahead and pull up a chart on that. Okay, so, here we have the chart – you’ll remember at that time we had this big gap up and I said “look, you know I’m really skeptical about this. There’s a lot of resistance in the backdrop here I and the one big gap up just isn’t gonna go ahead and make the trend.” Well, sure enough, what ended up happening was if you bought that high you bought that euphoria back there in September you said on a healthy loss and or dead money. Finally just got back to break-even with the news that came out here over the weekend or over the week excuse me now with an overnight with the Iranian situation. So, with that being said, all that time, all that effort just to sit on this it kind of goes back to what my thought was before. So now, here today you had this big push up which just brought you right back to where you were after that Saudi oil field bombing that happened back in September. So, if that puts in perspective that really even a crude oil play is not necessarily a safe play here. So, with that being said, here are my thoughts.

The markets still in net net and uptrend here now we’re seeing some signs of tiring particularly in the Russell, so, we’re gonna be watching that. All it has done is put a hit the midpoint of the channel but it did lock in the cumulation bar and at the close. So, with that being said going into next week the very first challenge that we’re gonna be looking for – if you’re really looking to get bullish we’re gonna want to get back up above these highs. Show us that the markets feeling pretty good. Now, what you have to understand is from a technical perspective getting back above those highs where we had this pullback would be very bullish but from a news outlet perspective and right now it seems that there are almost some people cheering on an attack like – “See? You provoked Iran. You shouldn’t have done that.” There’s almost like this bias towards wanting some people to see if Iran will attack just to go and attack President Trump. Well, regardless what your politics are, the reality is that if the President did provoke Iran through this attack and then Iran retaliates – what’s gonna end up happening here is that depending on the nature of the retaliation the tit-for-tat that could go ahead and come back and forth here could be very weary for the market. So, even though if you have a really great technical setup. So, in other words – Monday, the market turns around starts going back up. Tuesday, Iran goes head and launches some sort of attack that reserves a response then these markets are gonna be right back down. You have to understand that regardless of your politics – what you have to care about if you’re a participant in the market here is how the markets going to respond and so if there’s not a retaliation if Iran backs off here because the 800-pound gorilla got punched in the nose and backs off and everybody goes back into their corners and then chills out then the market has a real legitimate opportunity here for further upside. With that being said, we’ve almost hit the 29,000 you remember 27,000 was that that breakout point I share with you guys months ago and we’ve now gotten nearly two-thirds of the way up to the 30,000 target and we could hit that 30,000 target if this Iranian news goes head and dissipates. If it goes ahead and starts to escalate from here then with this tired technical market that has the negative divergences is more likely to push down.

So, here is how I’m gonna go ahead and be playing this – because of the nature of the trend in the backdrop I’m gonna be looking still for long side trades at this time but I’m gonna be having both long side and short side trades in my pocket. If the Russell starts to deteriorate and starts falling down below at the bottom of the channel which, again, the midpoint of the channel today it went ahead and bounced back off of it. If it starts pushing back down below the bottom end of the channel here now I’m going to start really looking much more aggressively for short side trades in general. I will also look for very selective, very technically damage, and fundamentally lackluster type plays, so, that they’re supported by the techno fundamentalists as really poor short side trades. So, I’ll be giving you guys some examples of these incoming videos but in the meantime because of the way the market is overall so bullish I prefer the path of least resistance is still up barring the world news and I told you for months I’ve told you for months repeatedly I said “the things that could derail this market are the trade war or impeachment gone wrong” which I said, impeachments at a standstill it’s not really impeachment. I think most people expect the Senate to vote this down and and and that based on how things have gone so far. So, that one’s not really a little so derailer but certainly China trade war things or the problems in the Middle East. I told you that repeatedly and specifically and so here we are that is now coming back to haunt us here and that’s the thing that’s still gonna be the wild card. So, we are gonna have another wild card. So, we have China and the Middle East has two real legitimate wild cards. We also have Brexit at the end of the month we’ll see how that goes but right now in the meantime, these are some of the key things. So, overall may be looking for long side trades especially if we can get back up above the highs but I’m gonna be looking for ones that are a little bit more defensive and not so sensitive to the whims of the daily whipsaws back and forth with the market because if the market does start to pull back because of something real bad with Iran I don’t want to go ahead and get caught in that down storm or that push to the downside. If it does start to go ahead and deteriorate more in like the Russell here getting down below that’s 1628 area then, I’m really going to be getting more aggressive with poor-performing – technically performing shorts and fundamentally unsound plays to the short side. So, those are a couple of the key strategies we’ll have some examples of that.

Also, as you know, this is going to be an exciting year. For the right the wrong reasons. The wrong reasons being your wars and conflicts and stuff like that. The right reasons because of the excitement over the election year and the whipsaws that will happen back and forth there and that this is going to be one of the best years on record with this new decade here. So, we’re gonna be talking a lot about that myself and some of the most well known financial experts here at the upcoming Wealth365 summit. So, come see me and several of your other favorites if you go to wealth365.com/bbt you’ll be able to see me and several other speakers, including several new ones have never been on before as well. So, you’ll be able to get their wisdom – you’ll get updated wisdom guys like __ were absolutely correct as well with the targets on this market. So, wait till you hear what he has to say next to amongst several other of the great traders. You’re not gonna want to miss that. It starts on Martin Luther King Day there January 20th through January 25th this would be the biggest one ever with over 90 speakers. So, go to wealth365.com/bbt and get yourself signed up for that right now. I look forward to seeing you there and in upcoming videos here. Take care, everyone! Bye-bye!

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