Trading Stock Index Futures During The Holidays

Stock Index Futures During the Holidays

Welcome back gang. Rob here with you. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays. We just want to do a quick video here this afternoon recapping Monday/Tuesday and what we’re looking at going into Thursday and Friday. Most of you won’t be trading and rightfully so, but for some of you die hards out there I want to make sure you’re not left without important information.

As we take a look at the stock index futures, we actually mentioned this the other day; the risk with the stock index futures and trading them at the holidays is that a lot of the normal technical and conventional wisdoms can be kind of thrown out the door. When you have more one-sided trade and you don’t have all the institutions participating equally it makes it easy for an object in motion to stay in motion. Normally when it’s overstretched it will come back and when it’s gone too far to the downside it will retrace back. You know we see that over and over again down below here (on my screen at 1:09) where we get these pullbacks down below and we get these quick retracements and pullbacks. We get too high and we start falling back here. Well, what we warned about in the video from the other day was that in a situation like this we can (even though we shouldn’t be having a small pullback even into the speed lines) just drift up. A drifting up because you’re into that holiday one-sided trade. That is kind of what we saw here Monday and, of course, the abbreviated session here on Tuesday.

Also watch out when the two-sided trade does come back in because you can get those quick reversals right back to the downside that can be neck breaking. So make sure you’re keeping tight stops underneath any sort of long positions that you have or are watching during this slow bleed up because when they let the air out of the tire that can create a knee jerk reaction pretty fast.

Two Instruments To Keep Your Eyes On

Two other quick things I wanted to take a look at and one of them is the Japanese Yen. We’ve talked about this one over and over again in the last few months and one this one we were looking for key breakdowns below specific accumulation bars. When we got those levels we saw further downside. Well, now we’re kind of looking once again at the accumulation bars we have forming down here (on my charts at 2:33). We are going to be doing the same thing that we’ve been looking at previously and see if we can break down below that. That’s approximately the 95500 area.

The second thing that I wanted to take a look at is the bonds. You’ll notice here with the bonds we’re in a pretty dangerous area here. This area has been hit now a couple of different times and we’re now settling back in. If we can get down here below this accumulation bar around the 12804 level that could push us all the way back down to my next major support level down around the 12520 area. So far we’ve seen that historically when they break through the one level they’ve been making it to the next level here. So keep an eye on that 12804 level.

So that is just a couple of quick updates here for this evening. We look forward to seeing you later in this week for some more important information that you guys will need to know about the year ahead and some things that we’ll want you to complete. In the meantime, you guys have a fantastic Christmas or whatever holiday you may be celebrating around this time of the year and spending time with your families. Take care and have a great one and we will see you in the videos later in the week.

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