Rob Hoffman Reviews Key Thoughts To Remember From Today’s Trading Day

Ok gang, fantastic stuff today. Let’s just run through it by the numbers. First of all, as we’re looking at the EURO, the two main points that I’ve been watching on the EURO is above $1.36 or below $1.34. AT this point what I’m going to be doing, we had this massive key reversal that took place today (on my charts at 0:35) and what I’m going to look to see is if we can continue down now below the $1.36 level and push even lower here. So, that would be the favored. We have had a very long move in a one day basis so it might have to pop up for a day or two. No matter what happens I’m going to see if we can’t get back down below here. That would be the favorite trade until such time as we get back up above the $1.36 and I’ll be very gung-ho about the $1.36. In the meantime, $1.34 is very much on my watch list this evening and going forward the next several days.
As we look at crude oil next, it once again tested that key accumulation area that I have been talking about the last few days. You’ll notice going from last week (on my charts at 1:20) we had this big accumulation bar and we keep testing it over and over again. We have no broken through it but if we can break through that area I will be looking for a move do to around the 90 level. So I’m watching this minute by minute looking for trading opportunities where we can push down.
Gold as you know I’ve been very bearish on. On gold we went ahead and started piercing through this key accumulation bar that was set over here (on my charts at 1:44). This long term band of support and resistance has been key not just from that accumulation but even into the backdrop as you can see on my charts (at 1:51). I’m really excited about this and what I want to see now is if we can hold at or below this blue band here (at 1:59). It can travel back into the blue band but I want to see it stay in that area or below. If that happens and we start to push back down it could lead to some fantastic sell-side activity. We traded short in gold in the Live Trading Room the other day and this is just kind of an extension of that process from the other day.

The DOW As A Key Index To Watch

Now, let’s look at the stock index futures. In the stock index futures it was all about the DOW just like we told you. That was the focus in the Live Trading Room, the focus beyond the Live Trading Room and right here in these videos. What we knew we had happening was the S&P, the RUSSELL and the NASDAQ were all at or below their daily speed lines but that DOW was just resisting travelling down this morning. So, we went ahead and shared with people what we’re looking for which is to get back down in the afternoon session after the FOMC statement. If we could do that, any sign of weakness and pushing through the slow speed lines on the DOW would lead to short-side opportunities in the RUSSELL and that. That is exactly what ended up happening and those are exactly the trades that I ended up taking this afternoon. Once we had that news announcement come out it lead to great retracement trading which is what I was focusing on and then nice shorts to the downside. Absolutely perfect, we just had to be patient; we had to wait for it. We were waiting, waiting, waiting. We knew exactly what we were looking for. We broadcasted that to you here even in the previous videos and certainly of course in the Live Trading Room.

Reviewing The DDD Opportunity

Now, as we go into tomorrow. I’m going to be watching the DOW once again to see if we can get sell-side activity and maybe get a speed line to 20EMA trade. That would be fantastic. That really dovetails into what we talked about here in the previous Swing Trading Video and then in last night’s video regarding DDD. It continued to go right on through today. The other day at $83 I was talking to the students in the Live Trading Room who were asking about it and who were looking at preserving profit. We talked about all the reasons why I felt that it was time to go ahead and get out of this trade. The absolute cut off point that I’d be looking for. Sure enough, as soon as it broke through that cut off point the thing nose-dived yesterday. In last night’s video I shared my concerns with you about this going right back here (on my charts at 4:36) for completing a speed line to 20 trade (one of those favorite options trades that have made our options trading so successful). We went ahead and closed out another options trade today. Fantastic stuff. So the methodologies were great and we came all the way down to that target in just two days after going ahead and mentioning that to you here. It dropped about 17% in two days. This was really great stuff for everybody to learn from.
To that point, as a reminder, if you guys want to be part of the nightly Swing Trading and Day Trading newsletters you can do so by going to www.becomeabettertrader.com/now. We’ve got a great offer going on for you if you want to get those videos nightly with some great content, some extra goodies, and also the Starter Package of Indicators so you can see some of those things happening. Just think about how much money you could have saved or made on just by doing something with this particular trade on DDD.
Keep learning from us each and every day. We look forward to seeing you in the Live Trading Room, in the videos tomorrow, or as you know, we are in Vegas at the Traders Expo and will be here all day tomorrow. Have a great night everyone.

What We’re Looking For Next In Index, Gold And Crude Oil Futures


Welcome back everyone. Rob here with you. First off, before we get into tonight’s information I was to go ahead and thank all of the fantastic people from around Germany and surrounding countries that came to the incredible event we had on Saturday at the World of Traders in Germany. It was extremely well attended. Every seat in the entire room was filled and there were people lining each of the side wall and back walls. So pretty exciting to go ahead and have so many people come to that awesome event.

Looking Forward for Short Opportunities

As we go ahead and get started tonight here, let’s look at the stock index futures. From my perspective, the big thing I’m going to be focusing on tomorrow is: can we get below the speed lines? Especially the fast speed lines on all four of the stock index futures. You’ll notice we’ve got the S&Ps here at 1:04 are basically sitting right at the fast speed lines right now. We have the Russell actually below the fast speed line and it is at the slow speed line. The NASDAQ also took a little bit of a hit on today’s session and went ahead and pulled down through the fast speed line and is at the slow speed line. The key is the DOW. The DOW has been a little stronger here and is holding above both the fast and the slow. So we want to see if we can get that one to start pushing down tomorrow. We’ll see if that will offer up some short opportunities.

The Three to One Rule of the Indices

It’s really important that we get all four of these showing the same message. If we have one that strays that usually becomes its own individual trading opportunity. For instance, this morning, that is exactly what ended up happening with the Russell. You notice here at 1:55 that most of these instruments were actually trading up this morning (S&P, DOW, NASDAQ) however the Russell was pushing down. This is a screenshot at that time (4 minutes into the US open). Notice what happens though, I pointed that out to everyone and then we start seeing it get more exacerbated where we had the stock index futures up here (on my charts at 2:19) crude oil was here and the NASDAQ was dramatically down. Well, conventional retail trader wisdom is that the one is probably going to go back and meet the three but in the real world what I often find is to be just the opposite. Typically the three come back to the one as you’ve heard me say many times in the past. What ended up happening, as sure as can be, you’ll notice that it got much more intense a few minutes later (on my charts at 2:42). That first slide was at 8:34AM. Within seven minutes you’ll see that, now all of a sudden the other stock index futures started coming down with the markets. So you’ll see the DOW sort of pulling off its highs here at 2:55. It got even worse and then the DOW started coming down even more. So gang, this is a great way to help you identify areas that can offer up some really fantastic trading opportunities. I’ve talked about it many times in the past and I wanted to share that with you again tonight.

Keeping an Eye on The DOW for Tomorrow

So as we go into tomorrow I’m going to be watching what happens with the DOW. Does the DOW get on board with the other three there and start trading back through the fast speed line? Maybe we’ll start finding some short opportunities if so. In the meantime I’m going to be focusing on gold and crude oil. Of course as we’ve talked about in some recent videos, I had some more bearish outlooks on crude oil for the reasons I mentioned. US oil production stepping up and looking to surpass that foreign counterpart by 2016 and so on and so for. What I’m looking at on my charts at 3:50 is we’ve got this nice accumulation bar that we set from last Thursday. You’ll notice we ate into that pretty good today. I’d like to see if we can break through that low from last Thursday which also happens to be a Momentum Shift bar as well. So that could be a nice signal. I’ve been looking for this opportunity to get moves down the ninety dollar level. We’re going to be keeping a real close eye on that going into tomorrow’s session. The reason why it’s important is because we saw this same kind of thing happen this morning in gold.

Hoffman Hockey Stick in Gold

First of all, gold went ahead and had what we call, the hockey stick here at 4:21. It’s kind of a Hoffman hockey stick and you can see that is up and over here. Typically what you are looking at after a situation like that is a pullback down. So, that was the first thing.  Then as we looked into the intraday session we needed more information to actually trade with. Well, early on this morning we had this really nice accumulation bar and we’re going to go ahead and be looking to break down through that. You’ll notice on my charts at 4:49 that once we broke down through that, it dropped over sixty additional ticks. That was actually the trading focus (we shorted in gold this morning) in the Live Trading Room.

We’ll be talking about that at the Las Vegas Traders Expo where we will see several of you. We will be talking about this trade set-up and many more at my talk during the Traders Expo. We really look forward to seeing you guys there in the next couple of days. I just wanted you guys to see (on my charts at 5:17) what our focus was there.

Going into tomorrow we’ll see if we can continue that move down. Particularly, I’ll be watching for short opportunities below the twelve seventy and then getting even more excited below the twelve sixty level. So, we’ve got gold and crude oil with some great opportunities and we could have some great opportunities in the stock index futures if we get some more sell pressure coming in there tomorrow morning. If we can get all four of the stock index futures to start punching back to the upside sharply that too could offer up some great opportunities in itself. Right now I’d like to see a little bit of a correction here. I was at my barber earlier today and even he was like “Wow! You know DOW 1600. What do you think, Rob?” You know when I start seeing people off the street getting so excited about it I’m usually more excited from a trading perspective to see some more aggressive pullbacks when everyone else gets excited.

Those are going to be a couple of key things to watch going into tomorrow. I look forward to seeing each and every one of you in the Live Trading Room tomorrow morning, in tomorrow night’s videos, and hopefully a whole bunch of you at the Las Vegas Traders Expo for our big event. Have a great night and we’ll see you shortly.