Managing Market Risk Reward With A Real Life Example In ORCL

Welcome back everybody! I hope you are have a great day post-FOMC. I want to talk about something that came up this morning. There was a potential trade opportunity in Oracle.

Ideally three to one or better risk to reward ratio is good. That is a filter for me. I ask myself, what is the likely move? If it doesn’t allow for a 2 to 1 risk to reward ratio, it might not be for me.

When Oracle gapped down yesterday, that opened up a really good opportunity from a buy side perspective. Here is why! You have an inventory retracement bar of the accumulation bar in the daily chart in the recent back drop. There was a lot of inventory there. We also see the exact same thing on the weekly basis.

You basically have multimonth accumulation between these two charts. That is a well defined reward to risk ratio area. What is a potential reward. I am not talking about where it goes all the way through the cahnnel and contiues on. I am talking about when it goes back to the channel.

Around the 5770 area it could be likely that it stalls out. This opened up around the 4680 area. That is around a $4 move to the upside of opportunity. If we buy the open on this, the stop loss goes right behind the key support area. If those institutions who bought it up above in January and February are still there, they would be gleefully buying at this area. That is what happened!

The risk on this was basically a little over 80 cents behind the $46 mark. Yet the reward was back up to here. That is well over a 3 to 1 reward to risk ratio. That is nearly even a 4 to 1. That is something that you can sink your teeth in, especially when you take a look at a situation like this. The weekly chart had a nice long term uptrend. Even the daily chart had long term indications on that. There is a higher probability that it is going to pull up. If you bought yesterday and managed your stops tightly, it went up around a $1.20. If you had a 50% trailing stop, you still walked away with a profit.

That is the kind of thing I am talking about. I want people to factor this all in. Are we gapping down into key support? You could have plenty of room to retrace back up because of that. Is this already a down trend in the market followed by room to grow to the downside.

A lot has to do with what was happening in the backdrop before this bad news came out. If the market is in a strong position people could find that this is a good opportunity to buy the dip.

That is something that I wanted to impress on a lot of people. I want you all to look at the key support and resistance levels for buy and sell or risk management opportunities.

There are a few minutes left on the clock. This has to be figured out by all of us heading into tomorrow. The RUSSELL did a great job of exploding up this morning with a parabolic move. The rest didn’t want to come along for the ride. Once the RUSSELL came off the highs, the rest followed with. The tech sector is still under pressure. We are still under the speed lines and under rising support holding on for dear life. We are under key supports on the NASDAQ, DOW, and S&P. The RUSSELL somehow magically had a very strong day. Which way will this settle out? Does the big 2000 say that it will follow the rest.

Yesterday was an inside bar on the day. Yesterday’s day was an inside bar on all four Stock Indices. Today for the first hour was an inside day on all four markets. That was until the RUSSELL started to break out of the range. That led to a really nice acceleration to the upside. The RUSSELL has been closing up real strong today. The NASDAQ has been closing very weak. We need that to get sorted out so that we can get directional. We will want to be there when the two of them start breaking together.

I hope you all have a great night and I look forward to seeing you all in tomorrow night’s videos.

To learn more about Rob Hoffman Trader visit www.becomeabettertrader.com

Trading Strategy – How Rob Is Trading Tomorrow

Okay gang, welcome back! Let’s take a look real briefly at a couple of the key Markets and what our trading strategy is for them.

Trading Strategy For The Euro, Gold, And Crude Oil

As far as the Euro is concerned right now, the Euro is in “no trader zone” from my perspective, unless you are absolutely short term scalping this thing, which is not really what I’m looking for from a trade. As long as I’m looking at this I’d like to break down below this inventory retracement bar, over here, or I’d like to get back above the down-trending resistance up above, which is currently around $1.3450 area. So, we’ve got a little bit of action there, and a little bit of range that we need to get through to take a trade there. Right now, no trade, no fresh trade in the Euro here.

As far as a Gold trading strategy is concerned, Gold continues to be in those “watch” ranges I have told you about. We’re not breaking through, so far, above the inventory retracement bar, here, to the upside or the downside. So, that status quo is still intact, here. That’s why I’ve warned everybody about this, because in the big picture, this is still a very, very tight consolidation range. Remember what I told you about this from the weekly chart, you really want to get above the weekly range, here, or below the weekly range, here. Anything in this area, right here, is just going to be more noise and just some pretty violent whipsaws and that can really cause traders some angst.

As far as what we did today in Crude Oil, we got just above the inventory retracement bar, right over here, set last Friday, but it got stopped here at price resistance from the day before. We just couldn’t breakthrough that area that we locked in a distribution inventory retracement bar. What our trading strategy is for this get back above those highs set earlier last week, around the 9870 area, approximately. If we get above that 9870, we have a decent chance of moving up, approximately 80 to 100 ticks, back up over here. Otherwise, I want to back off and wait to see if we can push down below the 9650 area for a move back to 9500.

As far as the Bonds are concerned, something I mentioned to you from the weekend video, we’ve locked in this inventory retracement bar. The target’s already been achieved. We hit that target last Friday, so, we’re already done. We hit the target, all the targets that I mentioned in the Bonds continue to be hit, once the signals are firing off. Now we’re looking for a fresh trade, here, a fresh signal, and right now, we have no fresh signal. We need to get back above here, pull back, and then start to take back off again for the next target up above, but as you can see that is not in place, yet.

Looking At The Stock Index Futures Today And Tomorrow

As we look to the Stock Index Futures, those were certainly the place to be, from my perspective, this morning. As we start off, let’s move this over, I see my indicators were firing off, here, quite a bit throughout the morning and that gave some really fantastic moves to the upside, here.

As we look to tomorrow, our trading strategy is this; we got the Dow, the Russell, and the S&P that all came approximately 50% off their highs, so they were all inventory retracement bars, back there. We need to see what is going to happen tomorrow. Tomorrow is really the key day. Because, with the inventory retracement bar, are we just going to roll right back over again. If so, this Market is still very much in jeopardy. If we can actually push through the highs of these bars, that would be much more likely to a little bit more sustaining for the bulls. So, the bulls are really going to try to push this thing higher. I warned everybody last week that this is that point of no return, this is the area that these Markets are holding on for dear life, because if they get much lower, look out below! There is nothing but air down below some of these, as we talked about. Lots of air down below, and you can see it even more clearly on the Russell, lots of air. And so, these were the last bastions of support, and if we didn’t hold those, this Market was in deep trouble. This is where the big fight was going to take place between the longs and the shorts. So far, the longs are winning in the short-term. Tomorrow’s going to prove to be a key day for me after this inventory retracement bar type days, these distribution bars. Does the Market start to push right back down again? If it does, I’ll aggressively start looking for short-side trades again. If we start to hold and break above the high of these inventory retracement bars, I’ll be looking for a lot more aggressive long-side trades. Okay?

With that being said, you guys have a great night. Lots of announcements to come later in the week, and I’ll look forward to seeing you guys, each and every one of you, in the Live Trading Room tomorrow morning, or in tomorrow night’s videos here. Take care everyone!

Very Nice Futures Trades This Friday! So What About Monday?

Awesome Futures Trades In The Live Trading Room

As we take a look, Friday was absolutely awesome. Ryan and I were firing off those futures trades and despite the fact that we had several trades, there were a couple that I liked the most because they are core concepts that we teach here all the time. That was these two here. Early in the morning, of course, you can see that we walked in the door below the daily speed lines, so of course my first bias was to short and then between the indicators and the market energy and the consumer confidence numbers, it was a double sell signal right over here momentum shift with trend and accumulation break down. So that gave a double sell signal right over here that was awesome. Then, my favorite futures trade out of Ryan today was the poke trade and a max range extension. So, what we had was a max range extension trade back into the down trending resistance at the same time, this is also called a poke trade. This is a double sell signal and we are looking to take that trade right at the close of the bar. Then it rolled righted back over and Ryan did a fantastic job with that as people got to see. He grossed about $350 let alone the trades that I did. Bottom line, is some great trading here between all of the different futures trades that were done in the Live Trading room. Awesome stuff.  As we go into next week, let’s take a look at a couple of different things.

The Euro And Crude Oil

As far as the Euro is concerned, right now I want to get down below the 1.35 level. We’ve moved into the September contract at this point, but I want to show the continuous contract tonight because it has all of my key support and resistance levels and right now, as you know, particularly the 1.3480 level is an area I want to beat due to the fact that it breaks my 80/20 rule and also this key accumulation bar in the backdrop. So, I’d like to get down below the 1.3480 going into next week. Additionally, Crude Oil went ahead and had another nice day. It had a range of about 100 ticks to the upside off of its lows. So it had a nice continuation follow through early on. Going into Monday we are going to see if it can continue to hold the speed lines and bounce and continue to look for fresh long side opportunities. If it breaks down below the speed lines, we are going to back off and see if it gets a firm footing because one day does not make a trend on this key breakout. So, since we had one nice solid bar and the next bar is a doji star, that’s a period of indecision, most people don’t realize that is effectively a 50/50 trade at this point so we are going to need to see some more information going into Monday before we do any futures trades.

Looking At The Stock Index Futures For Monday

As it relates to the Stock Index Futures as a whole, walking in the door Monday, we are set right now to open below the speed lines so as you can imagine, my first bias is going to be looking for continuation shorts until such time as we break above. Now these speed lines are all coming down pretty quickly so it won’t take much actually for the NASDAQ or the Russell to break back above those speed lines.  The S&P, it’s going to be a little bit tougher there, it’s going to have a little more work to do and certainly the DOW is going to have some serious work to do to get back above those speed lines. So I am going to be cautious on any long side futures trades until we gate back above there just based on where we are at. This is kind of a kill zone as we refer to it where you have the rising support underneath, the resistance crashing down and that is where a lot of whipsaws tend to happen, so we’ll be a little bit careful walking in the door from a long side perspective in particular. But, if we get some nice sell signals going off again, just like the last couple of mornings, Ryan and I have been killing it with those short side futures trades and we want to continue to focus on that as well if history repeats itself going into Monday.

So, those are a couple of the key things we are looking at. I hope you have a fantastic weekend. We will look forward to seeing you guys Monday. Let’s do it all over again in the Live Trading Room and in Monday night’s videos. Take care everyone, have a great weekend!

Trading Strategy – More Trading, More Action, More To Come!

Welcome back and happy Monday everybody. What a great way to start the week! Lots of trading in the Live Trading Room this morning between Ryan and I firing off lots of things. We talked about this being a great summer to be a trader and this is just the tip of the iceberg. We have so much more to come, especially with this ultra-low volatility as it resolves itself, and things such as the APPL split. Lots of things to discuss and trading strategy to go over.

First things first, with APPL, my thoughts on this continue to remain the same. I am still pretty darn bullish in APPL. In my nightly swing trading video I sold puts earlier, back in May and obviously the market took off to the upside, we had the right idea.  What I’ve been hearing the last several weeks is “don’t buy this because it is just going to sell of really hard when the stock splits”. But I have to be honest, I’m not sure that I’m comfortable with that logic. For instance, I have a brother in law who is an aggressive enthusiast with AAPL and was accumulating shares when it was several hundred dollars a share. He liked it then, you can imagine he loves it now when he can purchase so much more at any given time. There were a lot of people for whom APPL was out of their range before and it’s now in a much more affordable range for them. Plus we have these great opportunities for support that haven’t been touched now for almost 2 months. Lots of rising support which is something I look for in my options trading strategy, let alone trading the underlying instrument.

If I am going to trade the underlying instrument, I would rather see a pullback, personally, as a short term trader. As an investor, that is not a factor here, even as multi-week swing trader. But as a short term trader, holding for a couple of days, my trading strategy would be that I would really like to see a pull back to some rising support. From an Options perspective, the moment I can sell puts far enough out of the money I will be looking for whole new fresh opportunities in this once again.

Let’s take a look at the Euro. In the euro right now, we are only about 8 ticks away from an area where I will have an interest in this again. We’re going to see if we can get down below that 1.3580 level at a time where I am awake a conscious and see if we can get some trending back down through. This whole bar, this entire area is an accumulation bar. So, at any given time, there is always a risk of a retracement. What does that mean in English? It means my trading strategy is to trail stops a little bit tighter than I would normally do. I’m not going to give it as much room to run because I know some of the key retracement points are at the top, the middle and the bottom of the wick. Not to mention that this is also the 1.3550 area which is another natural place to see rejection, so we will be trailing stops on any shorts pretty tight.

With Gold, we are consolidating; it had a very tight inside day with another distribution bar. So, we are looking to see if we can get above the 3 days’ worth of highs between Thursday, Friday, and Monday or if we can break down below this accumulation/distribution bar and that is what we are going to be focused on going into tomorrow.

Crude Oil is looking wonderful. Crude Oil is right back near these recent highs. Our trading strategy is going to be to see if we can get back above this 1.05 level and push our way back toward the 1.10. There could be some great trading up there if we could make that happen. Right now we went pretty far, pretty fast, we have a stochastic spike and due for a little bit of a retracement, but if we keep grinding up there, especially tomorrow in advance of the Wednesday inventory report, we’ll be looking at trades there as well.

As we take a look at the Stock Index Future, we’ll start off with the Russell. It opened up and just took off like a rocket, firing off on all of my indicators. Everything was firing off to the hilt. What a great way to start the day between Ryan and I with the Live Trading Room. Then as we continued on into the session, we got a little bit of selling into the afternoon. Some of the markets became distribution bars, such as the DOW. Not quite on the Russell, but the DOW and the S&P became distribution and doji stars, so periods of indecision.

Looking At Tomorrow’s Trading Strategy

So, what is going to happen tomorrow as the markets play catch up to this area. My trading strategy is kind of the same strategies that I shared with you last week. That’s just it. The strategies are very consistent, and that is what we are looking for, consistency. Most traders are struggling from a lack of consistency. Yet, I give the same message time and time again, we see generally the same results and that’s what we’re looking for. So, what I am going to be doing walking into tomorrow is looking to see if we hold these speed lines walking in the door here and then start to take off again because certainly very few people are believing the run to the up side. From my perspective, in the weekly charts, we pushed above the resistance here, the distribution bar so I was looking for further upside. So, as you can imagine, I had no problem looking for longs into this morning, in fact that is the only kind of trading that Ryan and I did was long side trading.

Now, as we go into tomorrow, the trading strategy is going to see if we do start to break back down below the slow speed lines on some of these charts. Remember, they’re all going to rise up tomorrow morning with this parabolic move. So, if we can get down far enough to actually start breaking below those.

Otherwise, I am going to be right backs to looking for long side trades again, if we start firing off those setups again in the morning. So that is kind of the thing, watching where we are in relation to the speed lines, if we start getting down below, into the kind of neutral zone which is between the 2 speed lines, then I might become a kind of equal opportunist and see what the 2 and the 5 minute charts look like for long or short side trades. But nonetheless, the bottom line is, no matter how you slice it, this is just the tip of the iceberg.  We have so much more to come. This is going to be a fantastic summer, between what you are seeing right here and the ultra-low $VIX we’ve got a summer of fun and surprises ahead of us. What a great time to be a trader. Have a great night. I look forward to seeing you again for more excitement in the Live Trading room tomorrow morning or in tomorrow night’s videos. Take care everyone.

Trading Strategy – What Rob Wants You To Know Going Into Tomorrow’s Market

Our Trading Strategy With The $VIX In Mind

First off I want to tackle the $VIX. The thing about the $VIX, and I really want to look back at this to make sure people set their expectations properly. The $VIX has wound up at some pretty low lows here. It’s been here for about 16 months now in a pretty low format the last time it was down that low was back in 2005-2007 then we finally ended up getting the nice crash. The thing is, if history were to repeat itself we could easily go ahead and have several more months here where we’re sitting. When you think about that, there’s 24 months here we have 16 under our belt, we could easily sit here if history were to repeat itself for 6 more months of this low volatility prior to huge volatility expansion and crashing. The reason I point this out is because I’m seeing people take some pretty big bets here early as their trading strategy to try and seize upon a big market crash but as I’ve pointed out, which Is why I want to reaffirm that here, this is 16 months so far but back here this is 24 months of that ultra-low volatility prior to “the end of the world as we knew it’ so to speak with the mortgage crisis and everything. With all that being said, we want to keep that in mind when thinking about our trading strategy. If you’re taking trades with the instant expectation of market roll overs you may be sorely disappointed in your timing. Make sure you can remain wrong longer than the market remains wrong if you know what I mean in a situation like that.

The Euro, Gold, And Stock Index Futures

If you take a look at the Euro, it is something very much on my mind as we are talking about trading strategy. We just briefly dipped below that 1.36 today only to close almost right at it again. We just can’t break that 1.35 80 yet. The 1.35 80 area is what I’m looking to break down below during the European session and/or US session to get really excited about short side trades. For all of you that trade the overnight sessions into the US be on the lookout for that. That’s kind of the key thing I’m looking for. Right now we’re struggling at the 200 day moving average, we broke through it only to rally back to it. Now we’re coming back down but we have gone through that magic 1.36 level and that’s what is so important here. More specifically because of that rule that I have called the 80/20 rule, we’re more specifically trying to get through the 1.35 80.

I just want to update you on Gold as well. I’m looking to see if this is going to become what we call a KOBO, a kick-off blow-off bar. What happens is usually KOBO start off with a big wide range bar then they get several small bars and then they get one more big wide range bar and that’s were all the retail traders jump in and then it will start to reverse back up. Right now we’re just bleeding down, bleeding down, bleeding down since we broke down through my accumulation bar areas here on my rising trend line that I identified for you previously this market just has not looked back. We’ve had the kick-off bar portion, it’s a two phase process. Kick-off and then a blow-off. Well, so we’ve had the kick-off bar now we’ve had several small bars now I want to see that big wide range equal and opposite to the original kick-off bar come down here. That could lead for some great trading. It’s a KOBO and we’re looking to see if that might end up happening here kind of the backend to that trade. Watch for a big drop in Gold there to continue on with this trading strategy.

Finally, as it relates to stock index futures, I just want to point out what’s happening here in the big picture. We’re focusing on a day by day basis because we’ve got two in the two. You’ve got the two that just don’t start going up day after day after day. The S&P and the DOW. And then you’ve got the other two that are seeing some weakness in there and some pausing and not cooking. In fact, I want to show you this weekly chart again because I love showing it. It shows how important these levels are when we are talking about trading strategy for tomorrow. Here we are on the weekly chart, we’ve been here for several weeks, you count them up one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, and now nine. Here we are now, week number nine, we’re back into that channel. We held on for dear life at the speed lines today. As you can imagine going into these the next couple of days my trading strategy is going to be watching the S&P and the DOW start to roll back over, show weakness and the NASDAQ and/or the Russell can accelerate to the downside. Or will the other two rising tides, the S&P and the DOW start to lift us out of this channel, break out above here and we car really look more aggressively at longs.

We’ve got some work to do here though as you can see we’re still in that channel. Last week locked in a distribution bar, this week starting off Monday puts us at an accumulation bar. Again, that bar has all week to close I just want you to see what that looks like on the daily chart that we did. In fact, officially locking an accumulation bar. So you have distribution above, accumulation down below, looking to see which way this thing is going to go ahead and break. The jury is still out on this one and you can tell many people are getting very nervous placing a lot of bets looking at the $VIX now more than ever. I’ve been talking about that since back in January pointing that out to you for various reasons at various times. Well here we are now, a lot of main stream media catching on to the $VIX and a lot of people get nervous in these areas. Until the stock index futures show their ugly head we’re just going to take those small incremental intraday trading opportunities which Is exactly what I’m doing in the Live Trading Room. Outside of that I’m going to be focusing on Gold and of course the Euro.

You guys have a great night, I’ll look forward to seeing you in the Live Trading Room tomorrow morning or in tomorrow night’s videos. Don’t forget that we have a special event tomorrow afternoon sponsored by ICE Futures Exchange and also Trader Kingdom. The link for that is included in your email tonight so go ahead and make sure that you register through that if you’d like to join us tomorrow afternoon. This is the only public even I have scheduled for you guys this week. You guys have a great night, we’ll see you shortly.

Nice Market Moves Right On Queue. So What’s Next For Our Trading Strategy?

Welcome back everyone! Hope you’re having a wild and wacky Wednesday. Let’s take a look here at a couple different instruments and our trading strategy for them. Let’s follow up on a couple of instruments, we’ll look at a couple that we’re looking for movement from.

Trading Strategy For Gold, Bonds, And The Euro

First thing’s first, you’ll recall Gold. Gold, I mentioned over the weekend, is an instrument I expected to go ahead and have wide range activity. We’re starting to see that wide range activity since that video that I did for you over the weekend. We’ve already seen about 400 ticks of movement to the downside here. I suspect we’re going to be seeing a lot more movement in the very near future. It’s going to be exciting to keep on top of that instrument as we go forward here.

Bonds, I talked to you about this one too gang. We had a very specific trading strategy, same strategy we’ve implemented many times in past with key support resistance levels. Where you push through, pull back, take back off again then we’re looking for my next target. Well, we hit that target then we push back, pull back up and close above the speed lines. I told you in last night’s video once again that as far as I’m concerned it’s long side trades on this thing unless we get back down below the 136 28 level. Here we are, taking off. We’re already now half way to my next objective here, which is the 140 area. Great stuff for all of you bond traders and congratulations to all those in my student family that are enjoying this run right now.

As we look to the Euro, It’s still one that is an open opportunity. This one right here at this 1.36 level is very important to go ahead and take a look at. There’s a lot of opportunity. Just remember, as we saw today when you break down below this 136 resistance level there’s support level that we tend not to actually hold those breaks in the US session. Breaking round number supports, breaking up through round number resistance often is reversed. So as we’re going ahead and taking a look at this, we’re really looking at this play now going into the European overnight session and into tomorrow’s session with the US market. I want to open up tomorrow morning under this 136 and then look for sell side opportunities down to the 135 and below. We’ve still got some great opportunities with that one and as I said you’ll probably see me do a lot more Euro trading once we can make that happen. So that could literally be tomorrow, potentially if we don’t just bounce off here and go back up. If we do then I’m going to back off and if we’re back down in this area and making sell side trades, probably going to be doing some Euro trading as well.

Great stuff today, great trading. Looking forward to seeing you guys in the Live Trading Room tomorrow morning or in tomorrow night’s videos to recap more of this great information and how it’s playing out. Take care everyone!

Trading Strategies – Four Markets That Are Set To Explode

Welcome back gang! I hope you guys are having a very good Memorial Day weekend and celebrating with your families the way you see fit to honor those that have fallen protecting our freedom. As we go ahead and we get into the weekend and focusing on what our trading strategies are going to be going into next Tuesday. There’s four markets that I’m going to be spending an awful lot of time with and one of those is the Euro.

Now, the Euro I actually did a lot of trading and an incredible amount of trading the Euro back in 2010. Since that time it’s not been more of a primary instrument more of a tertiary instrument but that may change here in the very near future. What I’m looking at here is the rising support. We’ve got 200 day moving average support here and then down below that 1.36 round number support we’ve got lots of great room to grow to the down side. That’s what I like to see. What I hate to see here is when we get into areas where we have all sorts of congestion back and forth and you know you hear me refer to it a lot as ‘gobbily gook’. Just a host of support resistance levels kind of bee bopping around there stopping us from great advancements up and/or down. As we go ahead and we look here, if we get down below this 1.37 price see my interest peak in this quite a bit once again.

Another one that we just absolutely would be remiss talking about in regards to trading strategies we have going forward, and I’ve mentioned it several times and I’m just in awe of it, is Gold. Gold is such an incredible opportunity here as this is coiling up and coiling up and coiling up. Just getting tighter and tighter and tighter here. The last time we saw something like this, even remotely close we had these great moves that takes place here. Let me just show you a couple of examples like that. Back over here when we had a coil up like that we had this wonderful blast-off over here. And we had a coil up like that and had this wonderful blast-off to the downside. So here we are again, great coil up and I’m expecting fantastic movement. There’s going to be a lot of opportunity in that in a very short amount of time. I’m very excited about what we’re seeing here with Gold. That also ties in very well with what we’re seeing with the $VIX.

The volatility continues to drop and drop and drop and let’s put this on a weekly chart basis first here, you’ll notice it’s been since the beginning. March time of 2013 so over a year ago the last time we dropped this far and that lead to some great selling opportunities going into the summertime, look at that. Well here we are, going to be looking at this all over again going into this summer I think it’s going to be another fantastic trading summer and I thank myself every day and I thank my lucky starts that I’m a trader so I can be here and take advantage of this this summer. As we go ahead and look at this on a larger scale, we go back to the 2005/2007 time frame, that’s the last time we got down this low but then of course that lead to a market crash. We’ve got an exciting time ahead of us. Really looking forward to that. The $VIX is certainly an instrument, an index that I’ll be watching very closely here given where it’s at at this time. I’ll make sure you guys are very aware of this as well throughout the week when we revisit our trading strategies.

That ties in with, of course with what we’re seeing with the Euro, Gold and the Russell. We can see all these markets poised for large, wide ranged moves. We’ve now spent a seventh week on this channel of mine on the Russell. One, two, three, four, five, six, and now seven. Seven weeks we’ve spent in this channel here. So we’ve got the $VIX coiling up at super low levels. We’ve got the Gold coiling up. The Euro right on the edge here. A lot of great instruments poised for moves and this could make for an incredible, INCREDIBLE summer here. I’ll certainly be focused on these levels. In fact, what we’ve done here in our Live Trading Room, we’ve put in a special segment in the morning, the first 30 minutes in the session between 8:30 and 9 o’clock central. We actually put in some special trading segments and like this morning that’s exactly what we did. We had that special trading segment there and got live trading done this morning right during that initial time let alone when we go into the primary part of the program after the US open and the news. There are so many great opportunities right now in those first 30 minutes we actually have a special trading segment taking place even during that and that was fantastic. Our trading strategies today focused on long side trading in the stock index futures. Even though what we’d really like to do is have this break to the down side because look down below! Such fantastic opportunities, we’re an equal opportunist and again that’s what’s so wonder about being a trader. When we see the other stock index futures open up above their speed lines today and then we saw the Russell was opening up above its speed lines, well guess what? Focused on long side trades and that was the right move to be sure.

As we go into next week here again, seven weeks trapped in this key support and resistance. $VIX coiling up, Gold coiling up and the Euro set for great moves, we’re going to break to the downside. We’re going to watch this all over again, these four markets to be sure. Of course if the Russell Does have a big move well then that’s fine if you like to trade the S&P, if you like to trade the NASDAQ or the DOW, hey those are all great instruments to go ahead and seize upon this opportunity as well. It’s just that the Russell is the one that is the odd instrument out compared to the other three. So we kind of want to watch what the one isn’t doing or IS doing compared to the other three because that’s where we get our best moves from. But if you’d like to ultimately trade on the actual move on the other three well that’s awesome too!

Great stuff here. Great week, nice way to close our week there. Good profitable and looking forward to next week here as we come out of our holiday and thoughts of Memorial Day. Going into Tuesday I’m really excited, really pumped up about these four markets and more. So I look forward to seeing each and every one of you Tuesday morning in our Live Trading Room. Don’t forget, if you’re a member of anything of ours, we have our big monthly Q&A interaction with me. Those are usually extremely valuable and just seem to be getting longer and bigger as more and more people are asking lots of great questions and we are going over trading strategies more in depth. If you have any membership with us we have that so don’t forget. Monday you’re going to get an email with the link for Tuesday for that so be on the lookout for that. Also, if you’re anywhere near the Kansas City, Kansas area I’d love to meet you personally. A whole bunch of you already signed up for that so I can’t wait to see you guys. This is going to be a big fun even. That’s going to be next Saturday morning live there in Kansas City, Kansas. We’re going to have a lot of fun at that even. Look forward to seeing you guys there. There’s a link in the email tonight to sign up for that if you are in that area. Otherwise, for everyone else you guys filled out those special forms to get dedicated videos there. Keep on the lookout for those of course and I’m just excited, we’ve had a great 2014 and there’s so much more to come, especially with that $VIX down here at these levels. As I said, that always historically foretells big, big markets moves. Great time to be a trader! You guys have a great night, weekend and I look forward to seeing you next week. Take care everyone!

Rob’s Trading Strategies Proved To Be Valuable Again Today

Okay gang, Rob here with you. Boy, what a lot of fun! Thanks to all who joined us this morning that made it a great event. I was able to fire off multiple trades, discuss trading strategies,  identify key support/resistance areas, break downs, reversals, the whole nine yards for you guys this morning. It all stems from what I’ve been saying here for the past several weeks.

I’ve been utilizing the Russell a great deal the last several weeks. I’ve been preaching and screaming from the choir there day after day, week after week here sharing with you all sorts of things about the huge divergence that we had between the Russell vs. the S&P and the DOW. This really wasn’t being talked about. What was happening here was that people just keep seeing these indices rise but nobody was watching this underneath here. We talked about it, it kind of came across for a few different reasons, number one was the weekly chart here. I mentioned that for the first time in a year and a half we actually made a lower high in my core trigger. We were talking about that back in here because we make a lower high in the core trigger while making a higher high in price. That’s a big deal! When that’s the first time in a year and a half that that’s happened, we have to take notice. What does that mean? We’re in for deep correction. That’s exactly what I said, we got the deep correction. Here is the last correction, you can see this one went much deeper. But people just weren’t talking about this. It wasn’t about the Russell. I’m sure you heard some mumblings here or there but it wasn’t really a mainstream media type of thing. In fact, now look what happened finally today after everything I’ve been pointing out, even up to an inclusive on this yesterday during the big brokerage event that we did. A whole bunch of you were saying HOLY COW, HOLY COW looking at that. Guess what? Now we’ve got mainstream media focusing specifically dead on about the Russell. Isn’t that interesting?

As we go ahead and we take a look the bottom line is this led to several trades. I think this is going to lead into even more great trading going into tomorrow now. We are on the edge of the abyss here. Once again we are just as we were last Friday going into this Friday we’re going to be right back in the same place. Now the following Monday we stepped all the way back into the top end of my resistance only to wind up right back down at the bottom end. So here we are back down at the bottom end. I think that’s going to lead to some great fun. So just like I fired off multiple trades this morning looking to do even more than that going into tomorrow morning. Great things that we’re focusing on ahead. Just remember that my trading strategies will continue to be around this whole thought of the Russell being weaker and the DOW coming off. In fact let’s just see how much that came off as that was all the same stuff that I pointed out to you in last night’s videos. As we go ahead and pull this apart you can see how much the DOW and the S&P came off. Everything I went ahead and warned you about come to for wish there. Gang there’s so much you can learn by being in the Live Trading Room each day watching these free nightly videos basically that at least gives you a taste of it but everything we talked about came absolutely true.

I’m looking forward to more great trading as we’ve had here. As we said, 2014 is going to be a great trading year. It’s going to get better and better and better here as we go into in the summer months. Most people will always say that it’s just like conventional wisdom, “Sell in May and go away”. Well, if you guys looked at the last two or three summers, two were pretty extreme. I expect we’ll go ahead and have a lot more great trading this summer.

Also, we went and made a great off for everybody that came to our room this morning to join us. That offer is contained in your nightly video in your email section there tonight. Take the time to do it and by the way, Tanya, Sarah and Angie were quite keen on pointing out to me today that we had more ladies join us today than any other time in recent history. The sheer number of ladies that joined us. So ladies I saw there was East Coast all the way out to Huntington Beach on the West Coast, so from the far East to the far West. Welcome to all of you great lady trader that joined our student family today as well!

A lot of great stuff happening here gang at Become a Better Trader in 2014 and hoping you guys are going to go ahead and continue to be a part of it each and every day. Be it through our fantastic Options program, our Live Trading Room, or even just joining us on these complimentary nightly videos. You guys take care, have a wonderful evening and we’ll see you soon!

What We’re Looking For Next In Index, Gold And Crude Oil Futures


Welcome back everyone. Rob here with you. First off, before we get into tonight’s information I was to go ahead and thank all of the fantastic people from around Germany and surrounding countries that came to the incredible event we had on Saturday at the World of Traders in Germany. It was extremely well attended. Every seat in the entire room was filled and there were people lining each of the side wall and back walls. So pretty exciting to go ahead and have so many people come to that awesome event.

Looking Forward for Short Opportunities

As we go ahead and get started tonight here, let’s look at the stock index futures. From my perspective, the big thing I’m going to be focusing on tomorrow is: can we get below the speed lines? Especially the fast speed lines on all four of the stock index futures. You’ll notice we’ve got the S&Ps here at 1:04 are basically sitting right at the fast speed lines right now. We have the Russell actually below the fast speed line and it is at the slow speed line. The NASDAQ also took a little bit of a hit on today’s session and went ahead and pulled down through the fast speed line and is at the slow speed line. The key is the DOW. The DOW has been a little stronger here and is holding above both the fast and the slow. So we want to see if we can get that one to start pushing down tomorrow. We’ll see if that will offer up some short opportunities.

The Three to One Rule of the Indices

It’s really important that we get all four of these showing the same message. If we have one that strays that usually becomes its own individual trading opportunity. For instance, this morning, that is exactly what ended up happening with the Russell. You notice here at 1:55 that most of these instruments were actually trading up this morning (S&P, DOW, NASDAQ) however the Russell was pushing down. This is a screenshot at that time (4 minutes into the US open). Notice what happens though, I pointed that out to everyone and then we start seeing it get more exacerbated where we had the stock index futures up here (on my charts at 2:19) crude oil was here and the NASDAQ was dramatically down. Well, conventional retail trader wisdom is that the one is probably going to go back and meet the three but in the real world what I often find is to be just the opposite. Typically the three come back to the one as you’ve heard me say many times in the past. What ended up happening, as sure as can be, you’ll notice that it got much more intense a few minutes later (on my charts at 2:42). That first slide was at 8:34AM. Within seven minutes you’ll see that, now all of a sudden the other stock index futures started coming down with the markets. So you’ll see the DOW sort of pulling off its highs here at 2:55. It got even worse and then the DOW started coming down even more. So gang, this is a great way to help you identify areas that can offer up some really fantastic trading opportunities. I’ve talked about it many times in the past and I wanted to share that with you again tonight.

Keeping an Eye on The DOW for Tomorrow

So as we go into tomorrow I’m going to be watching what happens with the DOW. Does the DOW get on board with the other three there and start trading back through the fast speed line? Maybe we’ll start finding some short opportunities if so. In the meantime I’m going to be focusing on gold and crude oil. Of course as we’ve talked about in some recent videos, I had some more bearish outlooks on crude oil for the reasons I mentioned. US oil production stepping up and looking to surpass that foreign counterpart by 2016 and so on and so for. What I’m looking at on my charts at 3:50 is we’ve got this nice accumulation bar that we set from last Thursday. You’ll notice we ate into that pretty good today. I’d like to see if we can break through that low from last Thursday which also happens to be a Momentum Shift bar as well. So that could be a nice signal. I’ve been looking for this opportunity to get moves down the ninety dollar level. We’re going to be keeping a real close eye on that going into tomorrow’s session. The reason why it’s important is because we saw this same kind of thing happen this morning in gold.

Hoffman Hockey Stick in Gold

First of all, gold went ahead and had what we call, the hockey stick here at 4:21. It’s kind of a Hoffman hockey stick and you can see that is up and over here. Typically what you are looking at after a situation like that is a pullback down. So, that was the first thing.  Then as we looked into the intraday session we needed more information to actually trade with. Well, early on this morning we had this really nice accumulation bar and we’re going to go ahead and be looking to break down through that. You’ll notice on my charts at 4:49 that once we broke down through that, it dropped over sixty additional ticks. That was actually the trading focus (we shorted in gold this morning) in the Live Trading Room.

We’ll be talking about that at the Las Vegas Traders Expo where we will see several of you. We will be talking about this trade set-up and many more at my talk during the Traders Expo. We really look forward to seeing you guys there in the next couple of days. I just wanted you guys to see (on my charts at 5:17) what our focus was there.

Going into tomorrow we’ll see if we can continue that move down. Particularly, I’ll be watching for short opportunities below the twelve seventy and then getting even more excited below the twelve sixty level. So, we’ve got gold and crude oil with some great opportunities and we could have some great opportunities in the stock index futures if we get some more sell pressure coming in there tomorrow morning. If we can get all four of the stock index futures to start punching back to the upside sharply that too could offer up some great opportunities in itself. Right now I’d like to see a little bit of a correction here. I was at my barber earlier today and even he was like “Wow! You know DOW 1600. What do you think, Rob?” You know when I start seeing people off the street getting so excited about it I’m usually more excited from a trading perspective to see some more aggressive pullbacks when everyone else gets excited.

Those are going to be a couple of key things to watch going into tomorrow. I look forward to seeing each and every one of you in the Live Trading Room tomorrow morning, in tomorrow night’s videos, and hopefully a whole bunch of you at the Las Vegas Traders Expo for our big event. Have a great night and we’ll see you shortly.