Very Nice Futures Trades This Friday! So What About Monday?

Awesome Futures Trades In The Live Trading Room

As we take a look, Friday was absolutely awesome. Ryan and I were firing off those futures trades and despite the fact that we had several trades, there were a couple that I liked the most because they are core concepts that we teach here all the time. That was these two here. Early in the morning, of course, you can see that we walked in the door below the daily speed lines, so of course my first bias was to short and then between the indicators and the market energy and the consumer confidence numbers, it was a double sell signal right over here momentum shift with trend and accumulation break down. So that gave a double sell signal right over here that was awesome. Then, my favorite futures trade out of Ryan today was the poke trade and a max range extension. So, what we had was a max range extension trade back into the down trending resistance at the same time, this is also called a poke trade. This is a double sell signal and we are looking to take that trade right at the close of the bar. Then it rolled righted back over and Ryan did a fantastic job with that as people got to see. He grossed about $350 let alone the trades that I did. Bottom line, is some great trading here between all of the different futures trades that were done in the Live Trading room. Awesome stuff.  As we go into next week, let’s take a look at a couple of different things.

The Euro And Crude Oil

As far as the Euro is concerned, right now I want to get down below the 1.35 level. We’ve moved into the September contract at this point, but I want to show the continuous contract tonight because it has all of my key support and resistance levels and right now, as you know, particularly the 1.3480 level is an area I want to beat due to the fact that it breaks my 80/20 rule and also this key accumulation bar in the backdrop. So, I’d like to get down below the 1.3480 going into next week. Additionally, Crude Oil went ahead and had another nice day. It had a range of about 100 ticks to the upside off of its lows. So it had a nice continuation follow through early on. Going into Monday we are going to see if it can continue to hold the speed lines and bounce and continue to look for fresh long side opportunities. If it breaks down below the speed lines, we are going to back off and see if it gets a firm footing because one day does not make a trend on this key breakout. So, since we had one nice solid bar and the next bar is a doji star, that’s a period of indecision, most people don’t realize that is effectively a 50/50 trade at this point so we are going to need to see some more information going into Monday before we do any futures trades.

Looking At The Stock Index Futures For Monday

As it relates to the Stock Index Futures as a whole, walking in the door Monday, we are set right now to open below the speed lines so as you can imagine, my first bias is going to be looking for continuation shorts until such time as we break above. Now these speed lines are all coming down pretty quickly so it won’t take much actually for the NASDAQ or the Russell to break back above those speed lines.  The S&P, it’s going to be a little bit tougher there, it’s going to have a little more work to do and certainly the DOW is going to have some serious work to do to get back above those speed lines. So I am going to be cautious on any long side futures trades until we gate back above there just based on where we are at. This is kind of a kill zone as we refer to it where you have the rising support underneath, the resistance crashing down and that is where a lot of whipsaws tend to happen, so we’ll be a little bit careful walking in the door from a long side perspective in particular. But, if we get some nice sell signals going off again, just like the last couple of mornings, Ryan and I have been killing it with those short side futures trades and we want to continue to focus on that as well if history repeats itself going into Monday.

So, those are a couple of the key things we are looking at. I hope you have a fantastic weekend. We will look forward to seeing you guys Monday. Let’s do it all over again in the Live Trading Room and in Monday night’s videos. Take care everyone, have a great weekend!

A Great End To The Week With Some Futures Trading! So Much More To Come…

OK gang, welcome back. What a great end to a great week in total and certainly a nice way to end the week with that little launch off this morning. Let’s started with the basics first. The $VIX is at a new low that we have not seen since the beginning of 2007 and of course that just gets me all warm and fuzzy inside because as a trader, I‘m looking forward to what comes. The last time we saw levels that low, ultimately we can see in the charts what ended up happening. That was the beginning of the end for the bulls. Frankly I don’t care if the market goes up or down because between the futures trading and the options trading, we’re just going to keep humming right along. So, it is very exciting to see where the $VIX is right now. That translates into the Stock Index futures, but before we get to that I want to show you a couple more things that I am going to be looking at.

Let’s look at the Euro, I just want to remind you that I am going to keep watching this. I’m not going to do much with the euro as long as it is between the 1.36-1.37 areas; in fact I’m probably not going to anything to the long side at this point until 1/3750. But, what I am looking to see is if we get back down below the 1.36 are and start pushing toward the 1.35 and below. That is what I would like to see in the Euro in order to get active again. The other thing I am going to be watching outside of the US Stock Index Futures is Gold. Gold briefly got up above yesterday’s high and I want to see if we can do that again going into next week for some short term long futures trading. Otherwise, I’m quite happy to see it break down below this accumulation bar and these double momentum shift bars around the 1240 level and see much lower lows in Gold. I will definitely be keeping an eye on Gold into next week for some futures trading.

Futures Trading In The Stock Indices

As you can imagine, the crown jewel is the US Stock Index Futures. This is great. We have been watching the Russell for weeks and I told you that if we held this area, which is why I said don’t take the shorts yet, don’t make the big bets to the short side yet because we have got to see it get down below or we need to see it get back above. In this case, because of last week’s distribution bar I wanted to see it get back above that. That’s why I have been so aggressive to the long side since that happened. Up to and inclusive of the morning, as Ryan and I were firing off long side trades aggressively because of the great rocket ship that we had at the US open. So, quite exciting futures trading going on.

Peeking Into Next Week’s Trading

As we go into next week, the futures trading strategy for next week is going to be identical to what it was today. We are above the speed lines, so of course, my first reaction would be to think long. But the thing was that I was fully prepared to take shorts back to the speed lines. This morning when buy side trades came in they never looked back. It was buy side and buy side only right off the open today. So, as we go into Monday it is going to be pretty much the same thing. I will consider shorts back down to the speed lines but then I am going to back off of those shorts. Remember the speed lines are going to rise into next week. I will consider short term shorts if we get sell signals back down to those speed lines but I am going to want to get below those speed lines before I will want to take any fresh shorts. But if course, there is lots of room to grow with the rising support underneath. Especially as these get farther and farther away and this market goes parabolic in this ultra-low volatility environment.

I was talking to some of my friends who are doing meet up groups and one of them did a group last night and he was telling me that he had double the expected attendance. I was looking at our Live Trading Room yesterday, we invited a handful of people, a small percentage of our data base, for a special private event, we sort of do that at random and almost everybody showed up, and we weren’t really prepared for that either.

I am really surprised and enlightened and encouraged to see that a lot more traders are actually getting it. This particular summer you don’t want to be away. This is going to be an incredible summer to be a trader, whether you are futures trading or options trading, and we are looking forward to having so many of you on the ride with us.

So, have a great weekend. We talked about some of the key markets, the Stock Index Futures, Euro and Gold that we are going to be focusing on next week. I’m looking forward to a great week with you next week. Take care, enjoy your weekend and let’s get ramped up for another exciting week.