A Swing Trading & Stock Index Futures kind of Day

Okay gang, welcome back! I hope you are having a great start to the weekend here. Listen, what can we say? Let’s start off with the basics here as we look at the $VIX.

When the $VIX is poppin Rob & Ryan are rockin. Friday of course we fired off five different trades between Ryan and I which kept the room really engaged in the process there and seeing how and why we do what we do. Just really great stuff here as the $VIX continued to pop out of that congestion band here. Let’s see if we can get some more of that action going into next week. Every tick the $VIX goes up so do my number of trades. I always love to go ahead and see situations like that. The $VIX is rising.

Taking a look at APPLE real quick, what can I say about APPLE. All sorts of articles coming out here, I’ve kind of pointed that out a little bit in some of the recent videos. Particularly in Swing Trading Videos. Everybody’s highly negative on APPLE, talking about how APPLE is going to be obsolete in three years for instance and so on and so forth. Since this split was even announced telling people that they’re going to buy the rumor sell the fact well the rumor came out, the split came out and this thing is still continuing to be higher there. Will it go straight up forever? No, of course not but if you’ve been listening in to all that you know ‘muckidy muck’ in the news you missed some really great opportunities.

You recall my Swing Trading Videos, I was sharing with you guys where I was selling puts way down below here with really quick results obviously coming out of that. I’ve been kind of APPLE-ble for a little while here since they announced they were going to do that split. Again my logic being, if you liked it at $600 you’ll love it in the 90s. Makes it a lot easier to afford with those fundamentals. Just beware, it’s another one of those pieces of evidence. Watch out about what you hear in the news. We do have a negative divergence here, we certainly would like to see it pull back, I’d like to see it pull back. Let some of that divergence be absorbed and then have it take off to new levels here again. Nonetheless, if you bought into all the negativity it’s been out since down here, you really missed some great opportunities.

The Euro is most of the way… Thursday and Friday I stayed out of the Euro here. There’s a lot of news that came out for it and the Stock Index Futures just offered up too many opportunities such as the five trades this morning. There’s a little bit of room left until the next major round of support at 1.34. Beyond that my next opportunity to look for this would be below 1.33 80.
As far as Gold is concerned, looking at this both ways you recall the other day I was looking to get a break down below the 12 87 level, that just could not happen. It held that 12 87 I told you about, went right back up here to some falling resistance. We’ve got some more work to do on Gold. I’m actually looking at Gold kind of from both sides of the fence now. I’m looking to short down below the 12 87 look for longs back above that magic 13 20 level you’ve heard me talk about many times over the last month and a half or so.

Crude Oil was a great example of our work in progress here this morning. Crude Oil is one of the trades I actually took here as well. This market came right down to my round number support which is also S2 – Normal Statistical Maximum Daily Range and then shot right back up like a rocket. It was great for people to watch that whole thing in action.

Stock Index Futures Talk

Let’s look at the Stock Index Futures as a unit here. With the Stock Index Futures what I would like to see going into Monday here… we’ve got room to grow to the down side if we can get below this inventory retracement bar here. We’ve got room to grow if we can get down below the low and I’d really like to get below the low set here earlier this week. I would really like to get down below that 11 35 level on the Russell, that would make me a much happier camper. That opens up another hundred tick plus move to the downside immediately and of course below that opens up a whole nother can of worms which I’m looking forward to when that happens. In the meantime we’ve got room to grow to the down side on the NASDAQ on the DOW and we’ve got it to go on the Russell. The Russell as you can see has been the weakest of the bunch since the get go here. the S&P certainly has room to go to the down side but it’s going to be a little bit of a harder journey on the way down here. Some of these other ones, particularly things like the Russell could much easier fall out of bed, a little bit quicker there. Could be a bit of a rocky ride for the S&P traders on the way down for that. A lot of these retail traders have 6-12 tick stops there and 10 to get themselves stopped out very early.

Let’s take a look at the Bonds. We talked about this area right now not looking for the longs until back above this area over here, that’s the earliest otherwise there’s too much stress on the system too much resistance up in this immediate area here to make me real excited about looking for the long side trade. Did have a nice stochastic spike trade here which is all well and good. But looking for the continuations on to my next market at the 140 area I would like to see it get above this area over here set at the end of May.

A lot of great stuff taking place there. Stock Index Futures is definitely one of the primary places. The action was also in my personal trading this morning, in the Crude Oil. As a rule these Stock Index Futures are just opening up a lot of opportunity and while it’s giving a lot of Swing Traders and Options Traders a lot of headaches its opening up a lot of trades for the futures traders. We’re looking at this from a multi-faceted approach of course, Stock trading, Options trading and Futures trading but that’s why the Swing trading video that I do is so important in my Options program. Nonetheless, firing off all the different trades this morning. Great stuff! Looking forward to another big week of it.

Of course we have some milestones that I’m looking for because with the Russell here we’ve gone ahead and had this negative divergence that I’ve been telling you about for a while. That’s lead to various types of selling here. Initially we started that conversation way back over here where I showed you the negative divergences that kicked in and now we’ve seen that even more so as we came back up to those levels, those negative divergences were reinforced and we continue to drive to the down side. As you can imagine, what I would really like to do in the sweet spot here is get down below the 11 12 area on the weekly and then watch this thing deteriorate much further. That’s just because I like to ride the elevator down vs. walk the steps up for no other reason than that. I’m certainly not impermeable by any stretch of the imagination. I just like to ride those nice quick moves to the down side as you can imagine. That’s the beauty of being a trader!

Great stuff! Great week! Great way to end the week with five more trades this morning to really teach traders and have them watch exactly how we do it and why we do it. You guys have a great weekend, I’m looking forward to seeing each and every one of you in the Live Trading Room. If you didn’t already join us this week when we made that special offer consider doing that. There’s a little link to the video down below in your email. You can read more about it if you want at becomeabettertrader.com/ltr. But no matter who you are and why you’re here you guys have a great weekend and we’ll hopefully see you Monday morning to see what we do and why we do it. Otherwise we’ll see you Monday night in the videos here and keep helping you from afar. Take care everyone, have a great weekend!

Rob’s Thoughts On Swing Trading, Options Trading, and Stock Index Futures

Okay gang, welcome back! Let’s go ahead and take a look at a couple of different markets. Let’s start with the ones we’re going to avoid going into tomorrow at this point.

1. We’ll be looking to avoid the Euro. Today I wanted to avoid it because we had a big wide range bar so we were looking for a consolidation. The consolidation played out. I want to avoid it going into tomorrow and Friday more or less because we’ve got a lot of economic data coming out for the Euro all throughout the evening into the morning. That can make for a volatile ride with that many kind of news releases that you basically trade in the middle of the news and that’s not a good place to be for the average retail trader.

2. Gold is still sitting here in my affectionately coined term of gobbily gook.

3. Crude Oil, same thing. Right in the middle of all the gobbily gook. A bunch of support levels, resistance levels, and a bunch of levels rolling right through the middle of it. It’s high risk, low probability stuff whipping back and forth there.

What I do want to focus on is as such, let’s go ahead and start with the Stock Index Futures.

Stock Index Futures Talk

Looking at the Stock Index Futures the Russell is still very much a culprit here. We’ve got the kill zone in that gobbily gook range because we have a lot of support and resistance coming down on top of us, rising underneath us and then driving right through the heart of us here. That you can see now two days in a row we’ve hit that area that I warned about yesterday and we continue to struggle in those areas. In fact, like I said the trading I focused on today was short side trading. Made for a profitable day but none the less its tough money earned right now in the middle of this until we get out.

The NASDAQ performed very well today but we still have a negative divergence coming out of this here right now. As we take a look at this going into tomorrow, in fact let’s just pull up all of the charts here, the thing to watch is this… the DOW and the Russell are not performing very well here. We have a second distribution bar and on the Russell and you look and see we also have a distribution bar now on the DOW here as well. They’re both struggling trying to break out. The NASDAQ has been able to perform well because of NETFLIX, APPLE and others but we’re not getting that same love and that same support out of the DOW & Russell.

With these distribution bars here, going into tomorrow, I’m going to see if this is going to roll over. We’ve locked in kind of after a Hoffman Fade Stochastic Spike Double Self-pattern now we have a Hockey Stick to boot so you kind of have three sell signals there going into tomorrow. Typically in a situation like that I’m looking for a pullback. Right here even on the S&P struggling at yesterday’s distribution bar is where we’re looking to close up right now with five minutes left in the S&P trading session here. We’re already ten minutes after the US stock market close, we’re right there at that distribution bar from yesterday. To recap, while the NASDAQ took off today on an earnings related stint we’re still in a negative divergence on the NASDAQ. The DOW failed to gain any traction, Russell to gain any traction and the S&P, all of them either had distribution bars and or stopped at yesterday’s distribution bars.

I’m going to be watching, going into tomorrow, what should happen is that the market should pull down tomorrow. If the market does pull down I’ll be looking for shorts, if it doesn’t do what It’s supposed to do, which is sell off, so the sells don’t sell and we start charging to the upside then I definitely will be jumping on some long side trades because that’s a signal itself when the sells don’t sell. Especially when you have three of them on all four of the Stock Index Futures. Again, we’ve got these triple sell signals here with what we call the Hoffman fade, it’s also extended stochastic spike and then with the hockey stick sell. So we have triple sell on these indicators, which should come down. Either way is going to be a powerful signal for me so the Stock Index Futures are going to be very much on my watch list tomorrow.

As we take a look at APPLE, APPLE here continues from my perspective to be very bullish. I’ve seen a lot of articles come out as recently as June 30th talking about how APPLE was “crashing” and that was the quote there in the news media, that it was a “pump and dump”. Since that level we’ve gone ahead and continued to make higher highs. Just to give you my thoughts, it’s the same thoughts I’ve shared with you gang here on the Nightly Videos since way back here when I was selling puts. I was telling you guys between the Free Videos and the Swing Trading Videos here in particular how I was going to be selling puts here on APPLE before the split. From my perspective, listen, if you liked it at 500/600 dollars you gotta love it here when it’s sitting here under 100. What I’ve been telling you, the theme here is this, mom and pops who couldn’t afford more than a few shares of this thing at best at 600 dollars are now able to accumulate a lot more of it than they could before. It makes it much more affordable and yet the fundamentals are more or less the same. This is a great opportunity for people who couldn’t do a whole lot with it up here to do a lot more with it down here. You’ll notice that we’re holding my trends very well here as well. Every time we’re coming back to the rising support we’re taking back off there. From my perspective, while we may be due for some pull backs the overall analysis is still very bullish for the bigger picture here based on the same things that I shared with you back over here. If you heeded those words back then that would have been a good thing.

Bonds, I was asked by one of our viewers today “Hey Rob, what about buying the Bonds now?” Well the thing is, the viewer went ahead and sited the buy signals we had coming in over here if we could break out above the high from the other day with the distribution. The problem is twofold. Number one, that viewer failed to realize that we have a big distribution bar right in the backdrop here. So, that’s a big issue first of all. We really have to get above that and then our target is still initially up here to the 140 level. Second of all, the real entry if you recall was back down over here. I’ve been sharing this set up with you over and over again all year long.

You remember, throughout the year we were looking at the Bonds here looking for a pull back. Break through resistance, pull back to resistance and then I said we have to start taking back off and close above the speed lines. Month after month that’s what we looked for, month after month and we just couldn’t get it to happen here. Month after month we were looking for the breakthrough, the pullback to and then take off but instead it kept pulling right back down hard until finally it broke through, pulled back and then closed back at the speed lines. At that time I told you, “Okay, there’s the buy signal from my perspective from my trading and as long as it stays above the blue line here it’s still buy signal.” That causes to raise up here to the next target. Then we went ahead and pushed through, pulled back, tried to close above the speed lines but we couldn’t. Not until we got over here then we closed above the speed lines and then it had a shoot up. As we go forward here, then we tried to get above, we couldn’t do it. We pulled back through but then right over here we did pull through, pulled back, got back up there and closed above the speed lines and that lead to the next move. The point is the real entry opportunity from my perspective were here, here and then of course this one that I shared with you way back over here in the videos as well which was right here.

So we talked about those, go back and watch the videos, you’ll see more about that. I get a little nervous when people want to buy now when we’re already 50% 2/3 of the way up here and we’ve got massive distribution and resistance in the backdrop there. You have that big inventory retracement bar right there that’s holding us down even as I speak.

I hope that helps the viewer that asked the question and then for all of you to learn from it as well. Those are some of the key things I’m looking at into tomorrow morning, let’s see if we can have some more fun with those Stock Index Futures and the market as a whole. We have a lot of great things coming, it’s going to be a great second half of the year and I’m so glad you guys are here with me. Have a wonderful evening gang, well see you tomorrow in the Live Trading Room or in tomorrow night’s videos, take care everyone!

Options Trades, Swing Trades, and Day Trades | The $VIX Effects

Well, hey everyone, welcome back here. Hope everyone is getting ready for an exciting summer weekend! As we talk today, the markets not quite closed yet, I have to leave a little bit early as I’m getting ready to head down to St. Louise for a speaking engagement this weekend. Hope to see a lot of you there, it’s going to be a lot of fun. I was trying to reflect on what I want to share with you tonight. I think we’re going to hit two key concepts because they tie to last week’s videos in part and concepts we’ve shared with you many times and once again we put into action this morning.

As we start out, for all of you that are longer term swing traders, investors that are watching this market kind of looking for guidance on what’s next, even in short term turning points or longer ones. One of the things we want to watch is the $VIX. We mentioned last weekend the title was something to the effect of “It’s all about the $VIX, whether you’re a swing trader, day trader, or investor” and sure enough, last week we ended the $VIX with it right here at a seven year low. Pretty much most of the week here we spent going up, up, up the ladder from that point. Of course, what that did to the Stock Index Futures was some of them particular really put the hurt on most of this week. It’s really great for you to go ahead and see how the $VIX went ahead then and influenced the market for the entire week’s trading basically and what you can learn from that.

Make sure you’re paying attention to these videos when we talk about the $VIX and how we’re expecting it to effect short term trading because that’s going to affect your options trades, swing trades and of course your regular old and fun day trades. Ryan and I were cranking them out left and right here again this morning focusing on short side trades and that was the right decision to make this morning. Then we backed off as we had a little bit of a retracement back up. Let’s talk about that, because we identified where that retracement was coming up. Now how did we do that? Let’s focus on that, it’s a great learning opportunity for everyone here as well.

What was happening here in the overall market was the NASDAQ has been strong throughout this process today. Where as you can see the other ones are under pressure and under their speed lines today whereas the NASDAQ has been at and/or above the speed lines throughout the morning. What happened was we were looking at possibly getting another short side trade here in the Russell again after the great trading we had already done and the issue here was that I was starting to see positive divergences going ahead and forming here across multiple time spans. So I pointed a couple of those out and said, “Listen, here’s the issue, we have to watch that more positive market” because there’s the 3 to the 1 strategy that I share with you all the time. So what happened was the 1 a lot of times brings the other 3 with it. It’s counter-intuitive to what most people think about. Most people, the average retail trader says to me, “Rob, three of those indices are down surely the NASDAQ is going to come with it” but in actuality as I told you many times over the years here, it’s actually quite the opposite.

Generally and statistically speaking the three come back to the one. So I said look, I know this would be great to give it another short, we all want to make even more money and close out our week even stronger, you know that fear and greed thing starts to kick in. Fear missing a move then greed of wanting to go ahead and get another great one off. The thing was that what I said was listen, because of the positive divergence and that NASDAQ we need to mark the NASDAQ where it’s at right now and if it starts to go down then we can look for another short opportunity. If it holds or starts to go up this market could actually have quite a reversal to the upside. Sure enough, no sooner did I say that within the next 4-5 minutes in the NASDAQ not only held but started to pull back up. The moment that did that the Russell just went BOOM to the upside here to the tune of 40 plus ticks, four hundred dollars contract and of course more than twice the normal maximum stop out loss for the average retail trader.

It was a great way for people to see the 3 to the 1 strategy being used live in real time there once again. As well as some of our core strategies used in our work with positive divergences and everything else. Those were just two things I wanted to share with you guys. The $VIX because that was the theme all week since last weekend’s video and then you always hear me talk about the 3 to the 1 strategy and I wanted to give you a live example of how we stopped shorting this morning right before the nice reversal.

Great stuff, we’ll have a lot going on for you guys next week, stay tuned for a bunch of big updates. We have a lot going on next week that you guys are going to be invited to and so you’re not going to miss a lick of it whether you’re a swing trader or investor. You guys have a great weekend and we’ll forward to seeing you Monday with all sorts of great information for you. Take care everyone have a wonderful weekend.

More Great Swing Trading Action Coming From These Markets

Okay gang, welcome back! Oh boy, exciting markets just getting more and more exciting as things go along here! If you haven’t been checking out the Swing Trading Videos you might want to do that.

Look at some of the recent things we’ve talked about: LinkedIn, Pandora, Yelp, and Apple… Apple did a great job of giving some fantastic options strategy information that I was looking at last night with the strike price and such. That would have been very beneficial for people as we went into today’s session. As we look into the other instruments we’re focused on here in the nightly videos, the 1.39 was a big deal, a key issue, a key area we’re focusing on. You’ll notice we did actually pop through that area today. So hopefully you’re trailing up your stops on those trades and you follow through. The reason why we were looking at this after the retracement we call Got-You-Trade and then the push back up here looking for that break through the 1.39. If you missed some of the information go back and watch last couple night’s videos there, they’ll help you out.

As far as gold is concerned, we’re watching Gold kind of percolate a little bit under the 13/20 level. I’d like to see us break above that 13/20 level till we get too excited about doing things. Right now this area of support resistance, not a lot to do with it at the moment.

Crude Oil popped up a little bit today while markets slowed down but in the end it didn’t really go very far because we were trapped in a lot of My-Key resistance levels. So what we want to do is ideally break down below this accumulation area, remember that’s 98/70, I’d like to break down below 98/70. Or get back above 102 before doing too much with Crude Oil once again.

As for Equity Indexes, great stuff today coming off their highs and just settling in their lows of the day. Really excited about that! We’ve been talking about the daily and the weekly levels on the Russell, I mentioned that the Russell is and continues to be key here. It’s going to be closed near the lows down below the 200 day moving average and everything is just kind of coming down like a ton of bricks. There’s a lot of opportunity in this as we take a look here. The daily perspective, there’s no real key support here for a while. And even on a weekly basis we see there is a support down here in the 10/93 area. 10/94, that’s going to be the next major support level. What I really like about this is we get way down below that area we got quite a ride to the downside. As you can imagine id really love to see this thing sell off and sell off hard. Opening up a whole new host of opportunities.

A lot of great stuff in that brings us back to the things we were talking about picking some of these different ones. We were looking for sell offs in Swing Trading Videos and boy do we continue to go ahead and see it in spades. Great stuff so make sure you check out the Swing Trading Videos as well. For all of you, have a great night! Look forward to seeing you into tomorrow. Keep in mind these key levels that we’re looking for break outs and break downs because they’ve been working extremely well. If you have any questions let us know at support@becomeabettertrader.com and we’ll see in the Live Trading Room tomorrow morning or tomorrow night’s videos. Don’t forget we have a bunch of events coming up for you both live and webinar based in the next week or two so stay tuned for those. We’ll get you the information and look forward to see you in those. Take care everyone, have a great evening!

Rob’s Big Kick-off Video to Start FOMC Week Right

Starting FOMC week off right

Welcome back gang! It’s great to see everyone and great to be back from the wonderful time away I had with my lovely wife and to spend time focusing on her for the last week. Now we’re back, we’re fresh and we’re ready to do some great things here. Today was no exception, but you know what? Even while we were gone a lot of great things were happening here. Randy did several fantastic futures and options trades. He was cranking out futures as well as options trades in the Live Trading Room. Of course, that is a part of our awesome options trading program. Just a fantastic week even in my absence and then we came back charging out of the gate sharing some incredible strategies. Make sure you watch those Premium Day Trading Video today on the other side of trading opportunities that exist each day for people in addition to the core set-ups. What kind of trades we have while we’re waiting for those set-ups to take place. Pretty cool stuff in that video tonight.

So as we go ahead and we kick-off here let’s do a little more thorough video this evening on some different areas. Number one, let’s catch up on the EURO. First of all, the EUROs going to be one of these instruments… Let me just give you my overall strategy for the next couple of days. I’m definitely focused primarily on options trading and intraday strategies. I’m not focused on really short term swing trading, bonds, financial stocks. I’m getting a lot of questions about financial stocks. People asking me about taking big bets in some of these financial firms ahead of the FOMC in a couple of days. Gang, there’s really a couple of things you need to think about here. We don’t just have a traditional FOMC meeting; we’re also discussing the end of tapering, we also have the end of Ben Bernanke’s tenure with us. Again, whether you love Ben or you hate Ben is really irrelevant. What is important to understand is we look towards Janet Yellen coming forward here. What will she do to help or hinder the markets from the market’s perspective? So there’s a lot of big things coming out in these next several days. Pretty cool stuff. I’ve encouraged everyone from the Live Trading Room that they are absolutely here. I know that some people are sliding into a holiday mode. I think that’s a big mistake and we’ve already kind of proved that just from all the trading that’s already taking place here while Randy was here last week. Several options and futures trades. Huge mistake to be stepping away right now. There are too many opportunities. So, all hands on deck, you’ll definitely want to make sure you’re here this week.

With that being said, certain instruments are going to warrant stepping away for a few days here, especially on multi-day/multi-evening holds. I’m going to definitely focus more on the options trades that we already have out there and on the intraday for the next couple of days. I did take a look at a couple of swing trades in my Swing Trading Video and I’ll look at a couple more throughout the week. You’ll notice a theme in tonight’s Swing Trading Video that I’m avoiding some of the financial stocks.

Bringing it Back Full Circle in the EURO

So as we look towards the euro we will come back and bring this full circle from comments before I left. You recall that I was looking to get above this 13620 area (on my charts at 3:46). If we can get above that 13620 I was looking for a good move right back towards the 13700. Then from the 13700 what you’re looking for, of course, is to break back above the 13720 area. That helps give me more fuel for these overnight type moves that are likely to move onto the next key level. In this particular case what we had was that we actually gapped up above the 13700 level, traded back down towards it, started pushing right back through that 13720. That’s a pretty good sign that we’re heading right back to 13800. Well 13800 is about as far as we’ve gone in recent memory for the euro so this is a major and important key resistance level (on my charts at 4:25). So we’ve just been playing at the strategy here to play from key resistance level to key resistance or key support to key support.

As we close out Monday here we can see that we’re right back to that all important 13800 level. That’s a big deal. Now we’re kind of locked in here by accumulation that was put into this system on Friday and distribution that was put into the system today. What that basically does in summary is makes it a very dangerous place to be anywhere from here (on my charts at 5:09) to here. It’s highly likely to whipsaw against your position in a very short order. So it is a very dangerous place to be and again, being financially sensitive such as the currencies are, two days in front of the FOMC it doesn’t make a lot of sense to get too cute with this in the short term. We’ll be looking at those next levels (like above that 13800 and below 13700) as we come out the other end of the FOMC meeting.

Crude Oil and Transitioning Contracts

As far as crude oil is concerned we’ve been hanging right around that 9750 level all week while I was gone. We traded a little bit above it and a little bit below it. That’s a key middle marker for crude oil. For those of you that have been with me over the years you know that I’m very coarse in key strategies around this 9500 to 10000 level and that mid-point of the 9750. So as we go into tomorrow, once again, we’ll be focusing on day trading. I’ll look to see if we can get above today’s high and find a short term move back to around the 9820 level or so. That will be one thing that we’re focusing on there. Don’t forget, over the next couple of days we’re going to be transitioning over to the G contract from the F contract in crude oil as well. The volume is slowly moving over there. As we close out today we had about half the volume in the G already from the F so we’ll continue to watch that migrate over and be switching over pretty quickly.

Using Pullbacks as an Additional Entry Point for Trades

As we look at gold it was just a wealth of opportunities and discussions today in the Live Trading Room. I was showing people that there’s two different types of trades and a lot of times we find ourselves sitting there saying, “look I think this is going to go up but I have to wait for this pullback first and then find the reentry opportunity.” (on my charts at 7:17) How do we take advantage of the pullback itself? That’s what we spent the whole morning discussing; the very specific tools and strategies we use to identify the pullbacks. I’m well known for identifying those short term tops and bottoms. What can we do with that in the meantime while we’re waiting for those predominate trends to kick in? It was a pretty cool sessions and get back into the swing of things this morning. I want to caution you with gold and it’s the same thing I mentioned to everyone in the trading room this morning. Gold over the next couple of days is going to be prone to severe spikes up and down in advance and during FOMC time. We already saw multiple spikes this morning particularly to the upside early on but then we had some down drafts later as well. We talked about that this morning so just understand that’s going to be the way of doing business, if you will, for the next couple of days with the FOMC. In the bigger picture I’m trying to get back below the 12200 level. You’ve seen that the best we can do is had one quick close below there and then it is immediately rejected. We can’t get a good two bar break, even back here (on my charts at 8:32). Do you see that we had the one bar break and then it was immediately reversed? For those of you that are familiar with my two bar break strategy we just couldn’t get the two bar break strategy in place. We’re really looking to see if we can get that for further downside. In the meantime, I’ll be looking to tomorrow to see if we can get back down below the 12200 or if we can get back above the 12520. There’s approximately 100 ticks of opportunity in the short term there. So, there is some opportunity in this area of here.

Taking a Look at the Stock Index Futures and a little about the FOMC Meeting

As we look to the stock index futures this was another great one that we were able to focus on this morning with that concept of finding those extra trades. The stock index futures are holding on for dear life. Going back to the previous week here, you recall that back over here (on my chart at 9:29) was the weekend video where I said that a big move was coming. Sure enough, we had that nice push to the downside. It got rejected down into rising support which is exactly what we’d expect. It went then and found resistance right back up there into that distribution bar and, this is a shocker, we have a stochastic spike to boot. So, it ran out of gas right into the previous distribution, rolled right back over here to the downside (on my charts at 10:02) now cut deeper. So this morning when we opened up we had this nice pullback to the downside and then it pushed right back up to the falling resistance. That’s where it got stuck today. So tomorrow is a real key day as we go into this. The path of least resistance would be to open up tomorrow and even if we pull back a little its fine, but then start pushing back up. Why? It would be easier to try to get a short term up day above all of the gobbeldy-gook and key support and resistance levels up above here (on my charts at 10:38). There’s more air up above. If we stayed mixed in down here (on my charts at 10:41) the likelihood of whipsaws and people like the average retail trader (you can see this playing out there in advance of the FOMC) getting caught in some whipsaws back and forth and getting frustrated right before big moves take place with the FOMC and that. Then people will be too afraid to trade. If we can’t get a clear cut and clean signal going into tomorrow it might be better for you to just step aside. Also, look to see if everything from the S&P on down if you can get all four of the stock index futures to be trading back above the speed lines or are they down below. That’s going to be a key thing especially as we go into tomorrow where we had this consolidation pattern today. Can we get back above today’s highs? Well if we get back above those highs on the NASDAQ that will get us above the speed lines on some of the other key stock index futures as well.

That’s going to be a key thing to watch and again, you’ll notice the words “watch” and “focus” being used quite a bit tonight. We do want to make sure that we’re really paying attention to what’s happening here into the next couple of days with these FOMC announcements. How will the markets react to Janet Yellen? All of these things that are set to come about are going to important to watch and focus on to make sure we’re taking the right trades at the right time for the right reasons.

Watching and Focusing on These Couple Things

A couple of things to look at in addition to the areas we’ve already discussed. In the Japanese yen it ultimately went and closed right back down at the speed lines. We were looking to see if we could get it closed back above the speed lines and make another attempt at a speed line to 20 trade. We’ve had a couple of attempts at that already. We get one bar closed above and the next follows through more than 50% of the way but then gets killed off of the stochastic spike. Then back over here (on my charts at 12:37) we made another attempt that closed back below the speed lines so we didn’t get the attempt over here. Now, today we made another attempt but we couldn’t get the close back above the speed lines so, once again, we still don’t have that nice close back above the speed lines to help up forecast the move to the 20. I’m just going to be watching this now more so from an accumulation distribution perspective going into tomorrow and beyond. We’ve got an accumulation bar here and a distribution bar here (on my charts at 13:06). Can we effectively break above the distribution for a move back to the 20 or do we break below the low for intensified selling.

As far as the bond is concerned, again, on the financial side, much like gold it is subject to volatile move and volatility. I think for the most part the best thing to do is to step aside from this for the time being. Certainly the next major thing I’d like to see is a break down below this recent accumulation bar that we had over here (on my charts at 13:39) because the likelihood of that foretelling a move down to the next key support is high. Let’s see if over the next couple of days if the news can break us back down below there. That would be the more favored trade. Otherwise, I’ll probably skip some of the long-side trading over here and focus on some of the other instruments like the stock index futures, gold, crude oil and individual options plays.

Those are a couple of key things and I will look forward to seeing you guys here in the Live Trading Room tomorrow morning or in tomorrow night’s videos. It’s great to be back with you guys. Great trading to last week. Great start to this week. I’m looking forward to following through and closing out this week strong with all the great FOMC stuff coming up.

Rob Hoffman Reviews Key Thoughts To Remember From Today’s Trading Day

Ok gang, fantastic stuff today. Let’s just run through it by the numbers. First of all, as we’re looking at the EURO, the two main points that I’ve been watching on the EURO is above $1.36 or below $1.34. AT this point what I’m going to be doing, we had this massive key reversal that took place today (on my charts at 0:35) and what I’m going to look to see is if we can continue down now below the $1.36 level and push even lower here. So, that would be the favored. We have had a very long move in a one day basis so it might have to pop up for a day or two. No matter what happens I’m going to see if we can’t get back down below here. That would be the favorite trade until such time as we get back up above the $1.36 and I’ll be very gung-ho about the $1.36. In the meantime, $1.34 is very much on my watch list this evening and going forward the next several days.
As we look at crude oil next, it once again tested that key accumulation area that I have been talking about the last few days. You’ll notice going from last week (on my charts at 1:20) we had this big accumulation bar and we keep testing it over and over again. We have no broken through it but if we can break through that area I will be looking for a move do to around the 90 level. So I’m watching this minute by minute looking for trading opportunities where we can push down.
Gold as you know I’ve been very bearish on. On gold we went ahead and started piercing through this key accumulation bar that was set over here (on my charts at 1:44). This long term band of support and resistance has been key not just from that accumulation but even into the backdrop as you can see on my charts (at 1:51). I’m really excited about this and what I want to see now is if we can hold at or below this blue band here (at 1:59). It can travel back into the blue band but I want to see it stay in that area or below. If that happens and we start to push back down it could lead to some fantastic sell-side activity. We traded short in gold in the Live Trading Room the other day and this is just kind of an extension of that process from the other day.

The DOW As A Key Index To Watch

Now, let’s look at the stock index futures. In the stock index futures it was all about the DOW just like we told you. That was the focus in the Live Trading Room, the focus beyond the Live Trading Room and right here in these videos. What we knew we had happening was the S&P, the RUSSELL and the NASDAQ were all at or below their daily speed lines but that DOW was just resisting travelling down this morning. So, we went ahead and shared with people what we’re looking for which is to get back down in the afternoon session after the FOMC statement. If we could do that, any sign of weakness and pushing through the slow speed lines on the DOW would lead to short-side opportunities in the RUSSELL and that. That is exactly what ended up happening and those are exactly the trades that I ended up taking this afternoon. Once we had that news announcement come out it lead to great retracement trading which is what I was focusing on and then nice shorts to the downside. Absolutely perfect, we just had to be patient; we had to wait for it. We were waiting, waiting, waiting. We knew exactly what we were looking for. We broadcasted that to you here even in the previous videos and certainly of course in the Live Trading Room.

Reviewing The DDD Opportunity

Now, as we go into tomorrow. I’m going to be watching the DOW once again to see if we can get sell-side activity and maybe get a speed line to 20EMA trade. That would be fantastic. That really dovetails into what we talked about here in the previous Swing Trading Video and then in last night’s video regarding DDD. It continued to go right on through today. The other day at $83 I was talking to the students in the Live Trading Room who were asking about it and who were looking at preserving profit. We talked about all the reasons why I felt that it was time to go ahead and get out of this trade. The absolute cut off point that I’d be looking for. Sure enough, as soon as it broke through that cut off point the thing nose-dived yesterday. In last night’s video I shared my concerns with you about this going right back here (on my charts at 4:36) for completing a speed line to 20 trade (one of those favorite options trades that have made our options trading so successful). We went ahead and closed out another options trade today. Fantastic stuff. So the methodologies were great and we came all the way down to that target in just two days after going ahead and mentioning that to you here. It dropped about 17% in two days. This was really great stuff for everybody to learn from.
To that point, as a reminder, if you guys want to be part of the nightly Swing Trading and Day Trading newsletters you can do so by going to www.becomeabettertrader.com/now. We’ve got a great offer going on for you if you want to get those videos nightly with some great content, some extra goodies, and also the Starter Package of Indicators so you can see some of those things happening. Just think about how much money you could have saved or made on just by doing something with this particular trade on DDD.
Keep learning from us each and every day. We look forward to seeing you in the Live Trading Room, in the videos tomorrow, or as you know, we are in Vegas at the Traders Expo and will be here all day tomorrow. Have a great night everyone.