A Rotational Market Before Another Big Move

Nice Follow-up Video On Trading The Iranian Conflict

Okay, welcome back everybody! Let’s go ahead and cover a couple of things with you. First things first, let’s go ahead and pick up where we left off in the last video about watching out for false moves in the oil situation over the Iranian conflict and sure enough, we talked to you about the previous time when this Saudi oil fields were bombed how from my perspective I was not willing to go ahead and get long on this because of the fact that we still had this predominant resistance in the backdrop. Well then, sure enough, leading up here to where we were from the last several days here we are – all we did was we gapped and pushed right back up into that predominant area one more time and then you can see we started to actually lock in distribution bars so then, even with the push up all it did was it traded up into this area only to go ahead and come right back down here and because of the very measured move and the seemingly almost purposeful attempt not to go ahead and have any US military casualties on our end, that would push President Trump into really needing to push back again. So, a lot of people say, “Well, maybe this is it for now.” and so that brought crude oil right back down here again. So, armed with all this information I stand by what I said in my last video and what is proven to be the case even when I set it back here during the September crisis with the oil field bombing, I said I wasn’t willing to go ahead and jump in there long sure enough if you did that you sat on dead money or up to a twelve thousand dollar loss and then headed basically go back for three months just to more or less breakeven or make a few bucks ultimately if you pay up in a sell-off here which evidently somebody was very interested in liquidating at that point that since it drove us down several thousand dollars per contract in value. So, all things being equal, crude oil right now is a big goose egg.

This is why I did not want to go ahead and get too aggressive into the long side ETFs like USO and that. I was looking at that because at this point here goes crude and here goes the USO and same thing – we had all that resistance up here as you can see with USO as well. That’s why I wanted to see a USO break through these areas pull back show that support and then take back off. So, none of that’s happened so no USO long side trades. But let’s talk about long side trades in general. So, long side trades in general, I told you was the focus and I really wouldn’t be looking for short side traits until we could break down – I showed you guys in the previous video that were so strong on these rising support levels that we hadn’t even touch these for months even when we got down into them. Statistically, you have an extraordinarily high probability that first touch down there is gonna be massively rejected and even on the Russell which had previously hit the top end of the channel and the midpoint of the channel went to the bottom end of the channel and got rejected and that’s the weakest of the bunch! All the rest of them here as you can see hit the channel, Dow popped up nicely didn’t even hit the channel and the Nasdaq went ahead and popped off nice and violently here. So, where we’re at with this, brings me back to the overall strategies I prefer to be long than wrong in this case and on the short side until we broke down below these channels – I told you it was just not the right move from my perspective that’s proven out its point once again and the thing is – this isn’t a I told you some video this is like all the other videos meant to be educational, talking about what I said in advance and then what happened afterwards so you realize that you can learn these things too and be smarter investors and become better traders and that’s why my company is “Become A Better Trader” not “Become A Master Trader” not “Become the Best Trader on the Entire Planet”, you know, And all these other things. But become a better trader.

So, with that being said where we’re at right now is this brings us right down then into the intraday basis long side. It’s long side or bust right now really. In general, these long-term supports are still holding up very well and as long as we don’t start getting down below those channels I prefer to be long side trades. So, we take that down for instance into an intraday environment here. So, we looked at USO there on the daily chart a little bit ago and so now let’s go ahead and look at in the intraday basis. So what you have here, you have your end of day, you have your strong bullishness in the backdrop, you do have the negative divergences that we want to be mindful of – that’s why we’re not just jumping into anything carelessly or recklessly long. It’s got to be a good long opportunity and, of course, one of the things we’re finding is some of the best long opportunities are these intraday trades where the market goes ahead and panics and doesn’t focus on the bigger things I’ve been sharing with you. They go ahead and they panic which if you’re chasing after that short you’re chasing after a unicorn and not one that you’re gonna like catching and it’s more likely to stick ya! So, what you’re looking for is happy unicorns and happy leprechauns and so one of the best ways to find those is go ahead and focus on trading with the trend and then bringing it down on the intraday basis you can see here like with my ITP indicators we went ahead and we locked in a green dot and then a yellow dot and when we locked in the yellow dot we also had a double green at that point when we have double green I’m looking to see if we have two blue momentum indications and then I want to be blue and blue on the triggers at a minimum. Now, it’s even better when you go ahead and then have throttling. We didn’t have throttle initially we had throttling once we got back over to here finally and then that led to a nice continuation move and these were very big moves if you’re looking at these areas here from the 3248 -3250 area the initial move up here was around the 60 62 area, so, roughly about a 12 point plus move 12-14 points initially there and then after a pullback it went ahead and fired off fresh signals again. Another green dot, a yellow dot but then from there after you get your green and yellow dot, the next thing you’re looking for is ideally a single green dot or right to the double green dots which we’ve got the double green dots right over here then, we went to the double momentums and then we went down here to the triggers here as well.

So, if we look right down below you see we had everything going ahead and firing off. Triggers, momentum, everything, and then off to the races it took right back off and jumped from roughly the 58 area it went up nearly to the 68 area. Almost another 10 points in the S&P.; So, a lot of value opportunities here just trading my ITP indicators, basically the culmination of my life’s work, you combine with the strategies I shared with you in the last video how really preferring these long side trades and lining up the higher time frames and the bullishness there with fresh buy signals on like an intraday basis for instance and sure enough, we’re seeing all that come to roost or just like over here we have the buy signals all over here on the daily chart of the S&P; so pullbacks with into those trends with W pattern buys like we had right here. Full spike buys over here. Those are all fresh reentry opportunities when you’ve had the ITP indicators going in firing off in the backdrop but you can combine the daily charts and those intraday charts those are some really powerful strategies helping you avoid some of those unnecessary losses in things like USO and that when you’re not paying attention to key resistance in the backdrop and, of course, things like rising prices higher highs there but not higher highs in the fast trigger. So, you got the divergences and sure enough, it all came crumbling down today with currently the big nothing burger with the conflict from the missiles being launched overnight.

So, hopefully, this is tying everything together. It’s an extended video to try to bring together what I’m looking at and why it’s still at this point I’m only preferring and focusing on long side trades rather than the short side trades because of those massive support levels I’ve been telling you about are just so powerful it’s going to take more time, more eating away at those and probably some sort of catastrophic incident with Iran before we start worrying too much about getting below those and making it a better place to look for shorts. In the meantime, shorts more likely to go ahead and get your head handed to you as you can see and as we kind of proved out here a little bit ago. So, prefer to look for the market to get right back into that trend with fresh ITP buy signals you guys have a wonderful night look forward to seeing you in the live trading room and look forward to going ahead and seeing you at upcoming videos here take care of everyone and don’t forget to go out and see me, Ziad, and several other great traders and investors at the upcoming Wealth365 summit. That’s gonna be well less than about ten days now. So, a week from next Monday. I’ll be speaking there, Ziad will be speaking there, and a lot of other people. It’s gonna be a pretty big deal so go to wealth365.com/bbt so I can see you there for that very special event too because that training I give you during those events always ends up coming back and we see it and follow-up market activities. So, it should be a great time with you guys. All right, wealth365.com/bbt and thanks for being the world’s greatest students and we’ll see you shortly. Take care everyone. Bye-bye

Rob’s trading strategies given the latest Iranian conflict

Well, welcome back and happy new year everyone! You know, the last time where we left off with you was – I told you we’re basically going flat going home for the holiday and that was the right thing to do since that point which is reflected by the horizontal line here on each of these charts the market went ahead and had some pullbacks had some rallies and in the end is relatively where it was at or in like the case, the Russel, is still down. And the DAX is still down. So, as we as we look here overall neutral so that’s why risk-off over the holiday as I mentioned there was a few isolated cases, some great opportunities, and then there’s a lot of risk system people saw some you know stock take some big tumbles with some bad news that came out. So, where we’re at now going into the new year that’s what everybody’s been asking about after the Iranian situation today. We’ve just absolutely been flooded with calls about this today “what is Rob’s thoughts, what is Rob’s thoughts?” so let’s go ahead and talk about it. So, basically, to make a long story short, the market is still in an uptrend in the backdrop, okay? But, we also have a technically tired market here we’ve got negative divergences, right? So, what’s happening with these negative divergence is that’s causing these pullbacks now so far the market has done a pretty good job with the exception of the rustle of holding up pretty strong here it’s barely pulling back and then 50% off the lows – here it goes and it pulls back you know it takes back off again. Now, today the Dow kind of ran out of a little gas towards the end of the day here. This is shot Friday evening for you guys to see Sunday morning and then the Nasdaq has been the strongest one wound up just below the 45-50 percent off the low. So, where we’re at with all of this is – the markets a little bit tired and it’s certainly weary in light of the news that’s come out about Iran. Now, with that being said, the Iranian situation is going to go ahead and be something you cannot control. You are just gonna have to understand that whether you’re trying to play like a crude oil play and go bullish on crude oil or Halliburton or something like that’s gonna have just as much risk. For instance, if you guys remember a few months ago when Saudi Arabia went ahead and was attacked. In fact, let’s just go ahead and pull up a chart on that. Okay, so, here we have the chart – you’ll remember at that time we had this big gap up and I said “look, you know I’m really skeptical about this. There’s a lot of resistance in the backdrop here I and the one big gap up just isn’t gonna go ahead and make the trend.” Well, sure enough, what ended up happening was if you bought that high you bought that euphoria back there in September you said on a healthy loss and or dead money. Finally just got back to break-even with the news that came out here over the weekend or over the week excuse me now with an overnight with the Iranian situation. So, with that being said, all that time, all that effort just to sit on this it kind of goes back to what my thought was before. So now, here today you had this big push up which just brought you right back to where you were after that Saudi oil field bombing that happened back in September. So, if that puts in perspective that really even a crude oil play is not necessarily a safe play here. So, with that being said, here are my thoughts.

The markets still in net net and uptrend here now we’re seeing some signs of tiring particularly in the Russell, so, we’re gonna be watching that. All it has done is put a hit the midpoint of the channel but it did lock in the cumulation bar and at the close. So, with that being said going into next week the very first challenge that we’re gonna be looking for – if you’re really looking to get bullish we’re gonna want to get back up above these highs. Show us that the markets feeling pretty good. Now, what you have to understand is from a technical perspective getting back above those highs where we had this pullback would be very bullish but from a news outlet perspective and right now it seems that there are almost some people cheering on an attack like – “See? You provoked Iran. You shouldn’t have done that.” There’s almost like this bias towards wanting some people to see if Iran will attack just to go and attack President Trump. Well, regardless what your politics are, the reality is that if the President did provoke Iran through this attack and then Iran retaliates – what’s gonna end up happening here is that depending on the nature of the retaliation the tit-for-tat that could go ahead and come back and forth here could be very weary for the market. So, even though if you have a really great technical setup. So, in other words – Monday, the market turns around starts going back up. Tuesday, Iran goes head and launches some sort of attack that reserves a response then these markets are gonna be right back down. You have to understand that regardless of your politics – what you have to care about if you’re a participant in the market here is how the markets going to respond and so if there’s not a retaliation if Iran backs off here because the 800-pound gorilla got punched in the nose and backs off and everybody goes back into their corners and then chills out then the market has a real legitimate opportunity here for further upside. With that being said, we’ve almost hit the 29,000 you remember 27,000 was that that breakout point I share with you guys months ago and we’ve now gotten nearly two-thirds of the way up to the 30,000 target and we could hit that 30,000 target if this Iranian news goes head and dissipates. If it goes ahead and starts to escalate from here then with this tired technical market that has the negative divergences is more likely to push down.

So, here is how I’m gonna go ahead and be playing this – because of the nature of the trend in the backdrop I’m gonna be looking still for long side trades at this time but I’m gonna be having both long side and short side trades in my pocket. If the Russell starts to deteriorate and starts falling down below at the bottom of the channel which, again, the midpoint of the channel today it went ahead and bounced back off of it. If it starts pushing back down below the bottom end of the channel here now I’m going to start really looking much more aggressively for short side trades in general. I will also look for very selective, very technically damage, and fundamentally lackluster type plays, so, that they’re supported by the techno fundamentalists as really poor short side trades. So, I’ll be giving you guys some examples of these incoming videos but in the meantime because of the way the market is overall so bullish I prefer the path of least resistance is still up barring the world news and I told you for months I’ve told you for months repeatedly I said “the things that could derail this market are the trade war or impeachment gone wrong” which I said, impeachments at a standstill it’s not really impeachment. I think most people expect the Senate to vote this down and and and that based on how things have gone so far. So, that one’s not really a little so derailer but certainly China trade war things or the problems in the Middle East. I told you that repeatedly and specifically and so here we are that is now coming back to haunt us here and that’s the thing that’s still gonna be the wild card. So, we are gonna have another wild card. So, we have China and the Middle East has two real legitimate wild cards. We also have Brexit at the end of the month we’ll see how that goes but right now in the meantime, these are some of the key things. So, overall may be looking for long side trades especially if we can get back up above the highs but I’m gonna be looking for ones that are a little bit more defensive and not so sensitive to the whims of the daily whipsaws back and forth with the market because if the market does start to pull back because of something real bad with Iran I don’t want to go ahead and get caught in that down storm or that push to the downside. If it does start to go ahead and deteriorate more in like the Russell here getting down below that’s 1628 area then, I’m really going to be getting more aggressive with poor-performing – technically performing shorts and fundamentally unsound plays to the short side. So, those are a couple of the key strategies we’ll have some examples of that.

Also, as you know, this is going to be an exciting year. For the right the wrong reasons. The wrong reasons being your wars and conflicts and stuff like that. The right reasons because of the excitement over the election year and the whipsaws that will happen back and forth there and that this is going to be one of the best years on record with this new decade here. So, we’re gonna be talking a lot about that myself and some of the most well known financial experts here at the upcoming Wealth365 summit. So, come see me and several of your other favorites if you go to wealth365.com/bbt you’ll be able to see me and several other speakers, including several new ones have never been on before as well. So, you’ll be able to get their wisdom – you’ll get updated wisdom guys like __ were absolutely correct as well with the targets on this market. So, wait till you hear what he has to say next to amongst several other of the great traders. You’re not gonna want to miss that. It starts on Martin Luther King Day there January 20th through January 25th this would be the biggest one ever with over 90 speakers. So, go to wealth365.com/bbt and get yourself signed up for that right now. I look forward to seeing you there and in upcoming videos here. Take care, everyone! Bye-bye!

Check out this video: Rob’s life-work continues to hit the mark

Hi everyone! This video was created on 12-19-2019. Now that the holidays are over, we are catching up on uploading videos. Enjoy!

Okay, welcome back, everybody! Well, listen, as you guys know in video after video here I’ve been telling you especially as long as we stay above the speed lines here I’m very bullish and then as long as we stay above the channels here even pull backs are fresh buying opportunities here with things like this with like the crush trades and the, what we call, “three door trades”. So, the reality is, this all comes from you know these strategies that I’ve shared with you year, over year, over year, and what’s happening with these US stock indices they’re still in this melt-up phase we’re at nearly Dow 28,500, so, we’re almost halfway now to that 30,000 goal and I said we could hit if we broke through that 27,000 I said if we get about that 27,000 I said nobody’s gonna go ahead and believe it – they’re gonna sit there kind of stunned and paralyzed on the side doing absolutely nothing even though my indicators were showing time and time again the buy-side opportunities. Let’s go ahead and take a look at that now because for all of you that came to my Tuesday night event we went through what makes up all this and now here we are again I showed you, as of Tuesday night, where we were Monday and Tuesday and I’m sorry we canceled tonight’s event we postponed it now to this Saturday. It was gonna be a three-part event because people were waiting all year for this public event but the reality is we had so many people with our student family now that joined us we always take care of our existing student family members first and so we went ahead and are still doing that after the other night’s big event.

So, the focus is going in to take care of them first and so we’ll do another follow-up event for you here this Saturday morning at 9 o’clock central 10 o’clock Eastern but if you take a look here, so, first of all I showed you even in the video the other night you know how my ITP indicators continue to go ahead and fire off longs you can see we started off we had the pro RT type dots, we had the single green dots, we had the double green dots, double Momentums, and the triggers all firing off here and that’s after their original fire off back prior to that. Then I talked to you about what’s happening with the hourly charts. Well, guess what? We went in and we had the Pro RT dots, champion setup dots, we have the double dots firing off and then off to the races, right? So, coming into this it was full speed ahead on the hourly charts and what did I say? Then we want to go down to the lower timeframes. Well, guess what? The 15-minute charts were throttling double Momentum’s the double green dots – everything. So then, what does that mean? Things like the stochastic spike trades – phenomenal reentry opportunities. Bring it right down to the lowest timeframes you get look for the single dots and the double green dots looking for continuation. Even here again at the very end of the day let’s go ahead and bring it up where we are at the very end of the day and we were in and firing off here we were again into the end of the day we had throttling taking place, double green dots, double momentum. What are we looking for? Continuation move. Here we are in post trading hours on the future still going ahead and climbing here with all these incredible ITP signals. Again, this is a culmination of my life’s work. It’s why we went ahead and did that special three plus hour event on Tuesday evening painstakingly going through all these different things and here we are continuing to see them both on the daily basis, which I talked to you about extensively the other evening, I showed you a lot of weekly charts, daily charts, and intraday charts, and then of course, have all broke down to then how we bring it into the tighter timeframes and then here we are even at the end of the day all the opportunities that brought because of the hourly charts and the daily charts with where they are at.

So, all this stuff that I taught you here continuing to come full circle as a culmination of my life’s work. So, you know again, unfortunately, tonight’s event that we were going to do has been postponed until Saturday morning. For all of you that had to miss it or all of you that want to come back to it go ahead and join us a Saturday morning at 10 o’clock Eastern, 9:00 o’clock central, 7 a.m. Pacific time and go to becomeabettertrader.com/go this is the only other time here- it’s been a year – we’ve never done it publicly it’s been a year since I did it privately we’ve never done it publicly. So, we did it Tuesday night publicly for the first time ever and again, it was so incredibly well-received. We went ahead and are still taking care of those student family members and I always take care of my existing student family first so we’re gonna do it one more time Saturday morning, whatever your plans were, try to find a way around them, so you can be with us 10 o’clock Eastern 9 o’clock central 7 o’clock Pacific. This is the last time this year and there will not be a recording. So, join us at becomeabettertrader.com/go for your last chances here to go ahead and get access to – literally the culmination of my life’s work, alright? So, I’ll see you guys at becomeabettertrader.com/go Saturday morning. Take care everyone. We’ll see you there. Bye-bye!

The Previous Big Public Event with Rob!

Hi everyone! This video was created on 12-16-2019. Now that the holidays are over, we are catching up on uploading videos. Enjoy!

Well, welcome back everybody. This is exactly what I was talking about in my video from this weekend here. So, basically for those of you that maybe didn’t see this weekend’s video – for the first time ever publicly I’m going ahead and breaking down several of my core strategies from my Institutional Trader Pro tools and indications. I’ve never done it publicly before it’s only been kept in house for my student family and then I had a lock-up period, I honored that lockup period, and now for the first time ever I’ll be able to share this with our student family and boy you know just today alone same thing here you can see all my ITP indicators which you’ll learn about tomorrow night. Far enough, I want to talk a little bit more about what goes into these the strategies and how they tie in with all those different strategies and setups that you guys have learned with for me throughout the years. So, this is gonna be a very unique kind of presentation not to kind of thing that you’d normally see from me because I’ve never ever done this actually, publicly, but basically it’s an inside track to “Rob in a box” it’s like having me right next to you with all the culmination of my life’s work it’s really, truly several years that came together here that’s only been available internally to my student family for the last two years and only once in December of 2017 and then in 28th of December 2018 so once a year for the last two years and so first time publicly ever now for you guys. So, a big, big event here and it really ties in with what’s happening with the markets right now and it kind of moves that are happening here and when you’re sitting there doubting what kind of trades to be focused on, you at least know that exactly what I’m looking at and exactly what I’m thinking.

So, for those who they haven’t already gone ahead and done so make sure you don’t miss this special class tomorrow go to becomeabettertrader.com/go because it’s the first time I’ve ever done this publicly put all these different things together for you and but I said in all the years you guys have been around me all the things you’ve seen from me you’ve never seen this is a very powerful time and what a great way to kick-off 2020 in the biggest trade new year yet with what’s happening with the elections and impeachment Brexit, all of these other things, so, perfect timing for this, so this would be a very special event here and looking forward to sharing it with you guys tomorrow night. You’ll be my guinea pigs to go ahead and do this so but it’s all live of course and so it will all be done unscripted and just out there for you guys. So, you just don’t know what I’m gonna say into what kind of questions I’ll answer and I’ll help you guys tomorrow night. So, looking forward to it! Go to becomeabettertrader.com/go right now. I can’t wait to see you for this first-ever special event tomorrow night. Take care everyone. Bye bye

Rob’s back and here are his thoughts tonight

Okay, welcome back everybody! Well, first of all, sorry my voice is gonna be a little bit rough still and I make off on you at some point but thank you so much for all of you that went ahead didn’t know we’re so supportive in my absence thank you to Ziad who went ahead and covered for me to make sure you guys got some videos and some market analysis. thanks for again for the “Get well” wishes and that, so, as we go ahead we take a look here this evening a couple things that we want to look at from overall market perspective – a couple things I’m focusing on very clearly right now. Number one, I’m not really focusing on shorts yet. As long as we stay above these speed lines, okay? If we fall back below these speed lines, so, take a look where these little magenta numbers are on each of these charts that you see 3132 on the S 1628 on the Russell, so on so forth here. 27915 area 27915 area, so, just take a look at each of these different areas the 8359 area on the NASDAQ and so on so forth with the DAX. So, above those areas I’m just not even thinking about shorts not even on an intraday basis. I’m just not really thinking about them. Below those areas I’ll look at intraday shorts if the setups are there, however, let me show you something else it’s really kind of ruling the roost in just a moment, in fact, but, before we get into that let’s go and just remind you that in general so we still have a lot of bullishness in the backdrop. The big problem here is the negative divergences, so we have negative derivatives we’re making higher highs in prices on several of these historically in the recent past and so and then that led to these pullbacks. Well, now we’re start to come back up but we’re not quite coming back up with the same enthusiasm like look how high this price was over here and how high it got and yet it’s barely going ahead and reach its aim coming close to the you know the most recent crust which was a negative divergence that led to this downfall. So, I’m a little bit concerned up there I’d like to see more vigor come in with these instruments and today, so far, with the close is coming upon us now isn’t doing a lot that with this magenta bar to reinvigorate me. We have two of these that will close with magenta bars and two of them that are27915 area barely blue bars. So, no real conviction here and now as we speak about conviction you know what I’m looking at is far as then intraday trades.

This is an hourly chart of the last two days and basically all I see here is either sideways and chops by the blue bars or that I want to look at short term long side trades. So, this tells me here with blue and green on the board I either want to be out of trades or I want to focus on short term long side trades and that kind of ties in with what I was saying just with the bigger picture here as long as we’re about the speed lines I really only want to focus on long side trades I’m not gonna get super excited and super aggressive on the long side until we start breaking above some of these momentum shift bars on some of these prices. We’ll see how this all looks as we go through the next couple of days because we’re gonna have contract rollovers on the Futures and let’s talk about that for a moment because you know this is something that is really misunderstood by so many people and for those of you that that are in the Futures markets, remember for stock indices we start that rollover process now here into the next two days. The expiration is a week later but what happens is a lot of our brokers push us into the new contracts, so, when a lot of people will open up their screens tomorrow morning they’re gonna see it’s going to be defaulting like let’s say the S&P; futures to March of 2020 when a reality the volume is likely to still be, in fact, you can see here now on Wednesday evening and some brokers started pushing today. We have 8200 contracts on this last 5-minute bar here in the December contract and yet only 539 contracts on the same 5-minute bar in them in the March 2020 contract. Clearly many times more volume here in the December contract and as of tomorrow morning you’re likely to see that.

The best way to go ahead and handle Futures contract rollover on any instrument you trade is take the current month and then the new month that’s coming in wait till a 5-minute bar on the current contract is less volume than the upcoming contract – put another way that the new contract that we’re rolling into has more volume on that 5-minute bar than the current 5-minute bar. Certainly brokers want you to go-ahead and rollover early because they don’t want you to wind up in something you don’t belong in but, the problem is if you roll over too early like today or even tomorrow morning first thing you actually run the risk of more slippage and an inefficient fills when you have less volume on those other months. I mean, clearly 539 contracts versus 8216 you be the judge where are you more likely to get more liquidity. So, that’s just a tip for all of you that are either new Futures traders or need a solid reminder on the best way to roll over wait to look the next month at March 2020 in this case for stock indices volume is greater than on a 5-minute bar than that of the December 2019 contract there, okay? In the meantime my focus going into from a daily perspective going into Thursday and Friday is going to be can we break out of this very ugly sideways and technically damaged Channel and start pushing to the upside get more green on the board look for long side trades, however, if we get back down below the speed lines then we’re gonna go ahead and you know that I’ve mentioned to you on the daily charts then we’ll start looking at some short term short opportunities but with the strength of the overall market getting too aggressive on the short side and too fast people wanting to go and sell this market has proven to be a fool’s errand in many cases with the exception of very specific selective stocks but people are getting too aggressive on the short time short side are finding that still very painful because that’s effectively counter trend trading at this point. So, don’t be a counter trend trader travel all over the world with retail and professional institutional clients I’ve yet to find a full-time counter trend trader that’s and that’s all that they do that’s truly continuously successful for the long term – they have isolated runs and then they blow themselves out. So, be careful, okay? Trading against trend = bad news. So, with that being said those are a couple of things that I’m focusing on with the major markets and as my voice recovers and we get back into it here we’ll take a look at some of the breakout markets for you as well. So, you guys have a wonderful rest of your night, look forward to upcoming videos take care, everyone. Buh-bye

Market Ideas Into US CPI & Powell Update

Well, hello, gang! I hope everyone’s doing well, Z here from Become A Better Trader. A little market update for you. So, last time we spoke on videos we talked a little bit about what this week is to look like and where we could potentially see the week going. We had a break out on Friday there’s Friday’s candle on the ES on the strong jobs data we also got some strong consumer credit data, in fact, we got some really strong consumer sales data on Monday last week but, unfortunately, on that Monday after the Thanksgiving weekend looks like folks may have had a little too much turkey in their belly and we broke a dam of support at around 3140 and we then saw negative trade data, trade headlines, Trump saying that maybe the deal happens after election. We made lows and since that point in time we’ve been in a bounce – Monday’s market move was a bit of a whimper. W weak form risk-off we didn’t see anything that was very statistically significant. Some jitters on trade overnight were met with a headline this morning that picked sentiment up so, if we look inside the day we could see that market dropping off overnight and that happened around the 325 to 340 AM marker. We broke below a key support structure that line was 3132 in about a half a point built in inverted Head & Shoulders pattern and as we approached that 8:25 – 8:30 a.m. marker we got another headline that suggested the US and China may not have to go through with those tariffs on Sunday, December the 15th and up, up and away we went. It was a very, very big move from 830 lending itself to a bull flag that didn’t really build on itself and we ended up coming down testing the neckline of this inverted Head & Shoulders pad and that test happened right there at 9:35 and at that precise moment in time we started to see indicators telling us that a turn is more likely. So, in the Active Trader Room we saw this bounce opportunity play out and it took us back up to a double top formation. The rest of the day was no real strength building. It was as if the market used up all of its fuel on the first two moves of the day and we kind of flagged down. As we moved into the close we came down and retested that level of support again and bounced up in the Active Trader Room most of the active traders were looking at the market more likely tilting up into the close and shortly after hours and looks like the group got it right now what’s next tomorrow morning we get the U.S. CPI the Consumer Price Index data. Our Econometrica modeling supports it coming in a little warmer. That could create some jitters. Where would the jitters more likely be felt?

Well, we more likely see the US dollar gets stronger on a warmer CPI print but we’re not expecting that to change policy. We know that Powell speaking at 2:00 p.m. Eastern to our 2:30 p.m. Eastern time tomorrow, for example, the MC policy statement and he could easily reaffirm that he was right. Took the right number of rate cuts and wait-and-see mode, not gonna offer the market any more candy, bottom line is the CPI data tomorrow morning is not really even if it comes in hotter or warmer it’s not likely gonna affect policy. It could create some jitters tomorrow morning though. So, one of those jitters could be seen in the Euro. The euro USD coming down a little bit if that does indeed play out at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time when the data breaks we could very easily see a little bit of a shine on gold and silver come down a little bit and that effectively could create a little bit of negative action on equities in North America. Now, does that mean the market rolls over? That’s not still the likely outcome it would require Powell to spook the market. Now, Powell’s got a fairly good track record of opening his mouth and markets going down. However, the last time where he made a call – end of October now to where we are right now he’s been right. They didn’t need to do more they’ve got the right amount of rate setting however underneath all of that with the repo market crisis we’ve seen them pumping money into the market over and over. So, tomorrow morning the outlook that we have is more likely a market that has a little bit of jitters. CPI comes in warmer. Powell could come in and do the opposite of what he normally does tomorrow and actually create risk on and then he transfers that baton towards Lagarde at the ECB on Thursday morning. Now, in the weekend video you may have heard me talk about certain sectors that have catch-up potential and certain sectors that were overextended. For swing traders that were looking at long side trading the technology sector had catch-up potential.

So far, it’s been very indecisive. We haven’t really seen it take over the highs that presented on Friday. We have a slight blip above there but we didn’t actually see a higher high that was sustainable. We have not seen the consumer discretionary sector really rev if you will. It’s been a bit of a whimper over the last couple of days and folks are gonna be waiting to hear from Powell and Lagarde to elect direction overall but what we did see is some of the spaces that have overextended already on Friday’s breakout move. The banks in particular, the healthcare space, well, they held up but they’re not getting any brighter at this moment in time. Tomorrow morning the expectation is for a little bit of jitters. Those jitters can likely be mopped up by Powell in the afternoon and what we’re looking for tomorrow afternoon is a risk on reversal where US markets passed the baton into eurozone markets where in the eurozone we see Lagarde come out and have an easier job of convincing the world that she could spend taxpayer money create a banking union and we get some upside opportunities in the FEZ ETF of the EU FN ETF those are the areas that I’m focused on is mentioned in the prior videos the areas that I would be looking for swing trading longs from my personal swing trading EU FN long F easy long are things that I’m considering in to Christine Lagarde on Thursday morning. The triggers haven’t been hit for me as of yet so I’m in wait-and-see mode on those areas. Now, if tomorrow morning we get the U.S. CPI data coming in cooler – after today’s indecision print where we got a scare we got a headlight to overturn that if this market is able to come up tomorrow and give us enough time tomorrow above 3147 that would be a bullish sign in general implying at minimum a retest of the all-time intraday highs made on December the 2nd if not slightly higher. If we get a warmer or hotter CPI print – pretty hamstrung for a good chunk of the day waiting for Powell to pick up the slack and actually give us a push up and again in our Active Trader Room community has looked at this being the shape of the week – scenario B. So, the the group is still looking at that as the outcome but we need the signal tomorrow to actually look to elect that direction for us. I hope that this has given you some insight on market levels and some of the events coming up this week and builds on the weekend video. We’ll see on the next nightly video have a wonderful rest of your day! Bye for now.

Check out tonight’s special market video analysis

Hey gang, filling in for Rob, he lost his voice. It’s Z here. Let’s take a quick look at markets and see what we’ve got up next for the next day. Markets have been in a bit of a dive over the last couple of sessions and perhaps recovery today. We’ve broken an uptrend formation as you can see on the SPE minis that uptrend broke on the backs of some poorer PMI data from the US some manufacturing data that came out earlier in the week, Monday. It was followed up with some negative headlines on trade yesterday and today we did get some more data, it didn’t come out pleasantly but there were some headlines that came out suggesting that things between the US and China may actually be better than Trump had suggested yesterday morning. Yesterday morning at about 10 a.m. Eastern time we got headlines saying the US and China are looking good and then Trump said “well we may want to do the deal after the election”, and down, down we went 5 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time yesterday. From about the 3120 level on the ES down to the lows that we suffered yesterday 3069.5 the gamma pin in the market allows institutions to stay long and swing traders looking for that next bounce but was today really the day where we got a recovery signaling up, up, and away we go from here. We had some interesting trades today on the SPE minis that I’d like to walk you through today and give you a sense of how we traded the morning and how we traded the close and give you some hints on what we think is gonna happen overnight and into the open of trade tomorrow morning with a couple of tidbits and goodies on what you can do yourself into tomorrow morning. So, I’m going to pull up a chart of the SPE minis on a 5 minute basis and what you can see over here is we did take a nosedive at the beginning of the week that nosedive took us down to lows those lows were about the 3069 and a half a point area and what we saw yesterday afternoon was a grind up, grind up, grind up flatlining overnight a dip down and then we got this big, big pulse up. Now, this pulse up got us into a sideways range ahead of the opening bell today and what we did in our Active Trader Room was some guidelines for what we do as a starter trade for the day our suggestion to our community was very simple. We were looking for a breakout above 3107 for a buy we were looking for a break down below 3100 even for a sell and as you can see on the chart we did move up in the pre market that happened around 4:05 a.m. Eastern Time with some Bloomberg headlines broke suggesting the things between the US and China are getting a little bit better.

That did not carry the market much further beyond 3106-3107. We ended up breaking out and that breakout happened on the 935 am candle we then went into a flag or a consolidation pattern – I fumble the ball a little bit during this area but I staunchly stood by the side of unless this market takes out 3118 we’re not likely going higher. Why is that number so important? Let’s take a little look at what happened the day before when we go to 5:10 a.m. Eastern Time right over here on December the 3rd in the wee hours of the morning the headlines broke and Trump suggested that the deal between the US and China may actually happen after election. So, markets didn’t take that very well and went into a tailspin as we saw when we were waking up yesterday. However, that grind overnight it throughout the day and then overnight did leave us in a positive enough spot to look for a breakout we had a couple of push highers the one at 4:00 a.m. the one over here at 9:35 a.m. and then we flag sideways. Unfortunately into the end of the day, the market that had strong breath 4 – 1 advancers versus decliners on the new york stock exchange for a good chunk of the early morning didn’t last for the entirety of the day. What we saw into the close was people moving and rotating into defensive names like, Pepsi for example. We saw Staples get a bit of a bigger bid and we saw the market price darndest to get above that 3118 market which again was the breakdown point. So, we had a breakdown point right at that same line as you can see over here and that’s the area that the market is now challenged against it’s that battleground. We need to get above that 3118 area in tomorrow’s market just just continuation higher now I did mention I did trade the moves in the market from the beginning of the day and I’d like to take you on that journey and show you what the results were. So, starting at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time we were ready to short the market getting below 3103 to 3101 and we were ready to buy the market on a rise up to and through 3107. That’s exactly what we did we executed as you can see a buy over here my buys kicked in at around 3109 and a quarter of a point and that carried us up into the flag pattern for the day where I’d extracted about a hundred dollars worth of profit from the market. I then fumbled the ball a little bit – it’s not always perfect and we saw a bit of a sideways move occur in the markets until I decided nope it’s going down we’re not likely going to be able to carry this load into the close and I saw a negative profit for a little while until we got up to that 3119 area and got rejected and as we came into the close and shortly after the cash market closed down, down we went, I closed my short trade which was taken on at thirty-one thirteen point five that was closed at 3108.75 and it extracted from the market a total of all of the moves today $217 dollars and here’s the live cash account that it was traded off of you can actually see over here when I click on this button what the net P&L; of the day was two hundred and seventeen dollars and 20 pennies USD that was a trade on the S&P; E minis for the day and our thought process for Mr. Market overnight is we haven’t gotten a convincing signal that we are to rise it looks rosy but a few things have not actually capitulated that we need to see capitulation on.

Capitulation on gold, for example, breaking down below a key support structure 1477 – that hasn’t happened yet we may simply be in a pause right now in this downtrend on gold after it broke the neckline of a double bottom pattern on a journey back up to 1500. We have not seen capitulation as of yet on the usd/jpy the usd/jpy didn’t break above that 108. 9 marker and stay above. In fact, in the very timeframes we’ve seen the yen gets stronger and break this up trend formation add to that the volatility index for the S&P; 500 which did give us a big scare at that 5:10 am marker yesterday and we saw that big move up and then a big, big selling week if you will. We ended up with a VIX candle yesterday that suggested continuation up. Today we did open up with a little bit of a higher VIX print but throughout the day ground down. We tested a key support structure and bounced right up off of it. Capitulation comes in with the VIX below that 50-day moving average the S&P; would then be clearing the 3118 area and we would suggest to folks that at that time when we’ve got that signal the two days of scare that we’ve seen which have been the two most negative days since October the 8th, start to get overturned. It’s a time to either be in cash wait or short and look for inverse trades overnight which is counterintuitive to the bullish candlestick print that you’ve got on the day. Ideas like SH like PSQ like RWM and we’re gonna be managing those in our live Active Trader Room first thing in the morning tomorrow if we see the market above 3118 into the open and it’s up up and away from there with gold capitulating the USD yen capitulating VIX capitulating it is back up to retest the highs. We know that we have seen a couple of negative days that has not broken the big upthrust that started on October the 3rd but, if you remember back on October the 3rd the reversal was instigated on the heels of bad data that implied Powell was likely gonna take deeper and sooner rate cuts. We did get the rate cut at the end of October and we did see the market rally on an uptrend that is now broken this market has been overdue for a bit of a pullback and that started early this week. Is it finished? We hope to continue the journey with you in the next nightly video you!

Rob’s heads up on the market divergence hit and broke key long levels

Okay, welcome back gang. Really great action today and this was really important because this ties onto a lot of things I said here recently. First things first, as we look to the negative divergence, we had a negative divergence that’s been forming here for a while so what I said was as long as we stay above the speed lines I’m looking to go ahead and still focus on long side trades only but with the negative divergence here I went ahead and wrote in the weekend options update that we did, in fact, let me I should just bring that over here and show you. So, what I said is part of this email here was going into this week you’ll notice here clear and negative divergences on all major stock indices as per the image below therefore rather than issue alert from Monday morning try to join us live on Tuesday for our special training class we have which is tomorrow on maximizing income and credit vertical spreads. So, the thing is, that was basically sailors look we’re holding off we’re not gonna go ahead and do any trades here Monday morning on the options because from our perspective, we saw the writing on the wall looking for a meaningful pullback here with the you know negative divergence and even triple top divergences that were taking place here. Sure enough, we broke down below the speed lines and the rest is history so let’s go ahead and take a look at that on an intraday basis you can see the ITP indicators it was just a bloodletting.

We went ahead and we fired off the sell signals then they confirmed the sell signals and we had every single Rob Hoffman indicator going ahead and firing off sells which was a nice carry on to the daily charts with the negative divergences the extremely overbought stochastic that you can see here with M pattern cells and super-high stochastics and fishhooks sells even on the dax there so everything was primed for a sell here with the negative divergences. We broke down below the speed lines I said I’ve been looking for Long’s as long as we stayed above the speed lines but below the speed lines, forget it exit stage left and focus on short term shorts only. That’s basically what happened here this market went ahead and died a horrible death with the indicators going to selling until we finally went in based with a positive divergence so then we pay so the positive divergence here as you can see it we were making a lower low in price but a higher low in the indicators – that ended up basically be in the bottom of the day and short some short-term retracement back up and they said the market just kind of drifted a little bit into the end of the day as you can see here. So, it never really made a lower low but it it stemmed the bloodletting but the indicators were just on bonafide full-blown sell here all morning until that positive divergence kicked in, so, another classic case of the ITP indicators going ahead and you know doing their thing and full living color.

So, where we’re at right now as long as we’re down below those feed lines I’m not innocent catching that falling I’ve pulled back even if we do get some short-term retracements back up and so until we’re back about the speed lines I want to back off and if we stay below the speed lines we get more selling I’ll look for some additional short-term sells here like was the focus today if you were in the live trading room. So, those are a couple of the key things to keep in mind. Also, I told you know don’t forget actually as relates to you like the ITP, I told you save your Black Friday save your Cyber Monday dollars and your efforts and go ahead and focus on what’s coming up here. I’m gonna do a really incredible class for you here it’s gonna be early next week we’ll send you more details later this week as I promised and you know learn how all these different strategies, numerous different setups and indicators and strategies might all kind of come together from a daily and intraday perspective so whether you’re an active day trader or a swing trader this is really important information to learned that I’ve never shared publicly before. So, stay tuned from the invite to that later this week but in the meantime enjoy what we were saying even as recently as this weekend the options alerts like with the divergences and my indicators we’re not doing a trade Monday morning at the normal time that we would we’re gonna go ahead and revisit Tuesday at our special training class. We’re practicing what we preach and we’re talking about these things and making sure that you guys are kind of kept up to speed here as well with the for those of you that don’t have some of these advanced tools that I have. So, with that being said, you guys have a wonderful rest of your evening. Remember what I said about not trying to catch the falling knife or a short-term retracements right now not really going to be focusing on the long side trades until we get back up there above those speed lines for now and if we do continue selling I’ll wait till we get some of these great sell signals – focus on those for further opportunities, all right? You guys have a great night. See you soon, take care, everyone.